Week Ending 12/19/2025

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MARKET RECAP

  • SPX +0.12%, international stocks +0.56%, bonds +0.36%.
  • CPI came in below expectations at 2.7%, but economists noted issues with the data.
  • The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest in four years. Payrolls increased by 64k after falling 105k in October, but that included 162k federal workers.
  • According to Factset, analysts are looking for 15% earnings growth in 2026, Mag 7 stocks are estimated to grow by 22.7% and the Little 493 by 12.5%.
  • Stock ownership is at an all-time high, 30% of total assets, exceeding 27% and the peak of the dotcom era.
  • The Bank of Japan increased its interest rate to the highest level in 30-years at 0.75%.

SCOREBOARD

Week Ending 11/21/2025

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MARKET RECAP

  • US stocks -1.84%, bonds +0.44%, bitcoin down about 10%.
  • Earnings estimates for the next three years are up five weeks in a row. See the chart below.
  • There were 119,000 jobs added in September, versus a 50,000 estimate, but the July and August employment numbers were cut. The unemployment rate increased to 4.4%, the highest rate in four years.
  • Nvdia reported blockbuster earnings, but that couldn’t curb fears that the AI trade is way overdone and the massive capital spending plans are going to come back to haunt companies.

EARNINGS ESTIMATES OVER TIME

SCOREBOARD

Week Ending 10/31/2025

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MARKET RECAP

  • US stocks +0.51%, international -0.43%, bonds -0.59%.

Below are highlights for the week courtesy of Perplexity’s Comet:

Financial markets from October 27 to October 31, 2025, saw a strong finish to the month, with major tech earnings, a Federal Reserve rate cut, and significant stock index gains taking center stage. Below are the key highlights for that week.wsj+2​

US Stock Market Performance

  • The S&P 500 rose by about 2% for the month, closing above 6,900 for the first time.bilello+1​

  • The Nasdaq surged 4.1% in October, with Amazon’s stellar earnings giving it an additional boost—Amazon stock jumped 9.6% on strong cloud growth and infrastructure expansion.cnbc+1​

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a small 0.1% gain on Friday, capping a sixth consecutive month of gains, a streak unseen since 2018.wsj+1​

  • Apple posted record sales with optimism for the December quarter, although its shares ended 0.4% lower after volatile trading.wsj​

  • Meanwhile, Meta Platforms and Microsoft shares fell due to concerns over increased expenditures on artificial intelligence initiatives.wsj​

  • Positive momentum was driven by continued robust performance from “Mag7” mega-cap tech stocks (Tesla, Google, Nvidia, etc.), despite job cut headlines from Amazon and Target.investrade​

Interest Rates and Central Banks

  • The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% to a 3.75%–4% range, its second straight cut this cycle, but signaled uncertainty about further reductions, causing expectations for another cut this year to fall.weforum​

  • Rate-cut optimism further fueled market gains and drove yields on Treasuries lower.cnbc+1​

International Markets

  • Japan’s Nikkei 225 soared to an all-time high, marking its largest monthly gain since 1990.wsj​

  • Most other major international markets lagged, partly due to lingering concerns about China’s property market and slow global growth.weforum​

Commodities and Crypto

  • Chevron and ExxonMobil posted lower profits but pledged to expand production; energy stocks were mixed on their respective results.finance.yahoo+1​

  • Bitcoin broke its seven-year streak of October gains, ending the month with a loss—the first time since 2018.reuters​

Notable Corporate/Economic Developments

  • Market breadth was strong, with advancers outnumbering decliners and volatility (VIX) dropping substantially as investors piled back into tech and momentum plays.investrade​

  • Bank of America reshuffled leadership in its global markets unit, and Berkshire Hathaway prepared for a leadership transition with Warren Buffett delegating future annual letters.reuters​

The final week of October 2025 was marked by optimism in US equities—especially large-cap tech—on strong earnings, easing monetary policy, and subsiding volatility, though not all sectors or global regions participated equally in the rally.cnbc+2​

  1. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-10-31-2025
  2. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/30/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
  3. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/10/us-fed-cut-rate-outlook-temper-and-other-finance-news-to-know/
  4. https://bilello.blog/2025/the-week-in-charts-10-29-25
  5. https://www.investrade.com/market-review-october-27-2025/
  6. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-climb-to-cap-winning-month-as-strong-earnings-easing-rates-fuel-amazon-tech-stocks-200208645.html
  7. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/
  8. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-30/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates
  9. https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-cautious-fed-trump-china-deal-meta-fall-alphabet-up-apple-amazon
  10. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/stock-market-news-oct-28-2025
  11. https://www.investopedia.com/dow-jones-today-10232025-11835434
  12. https://madisoninvestments.com/resources/monthly_market_update_october_2025
  13. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3bU2bKpfCQ

 

SCOREBOARD

Week Ending 10/24/2025

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MARKET RECAP

  • US stocks +1.96%, international stocks +1.01%, bonds +1.08%, bitcoin +4.2%, gold -2.95%.
  • Stocks closed at record highs on Friday, as stocks gapped higher.
  • Earnings are coming in strong, +9.2% based on 29% reporting, and 87% have beaten estimates.
  • Headline CPI was 0.3%, just below the 0.4% consensus. That was deemed sufficient to give the go-ahead for another interest rate cut at the next meeting.
  • The government is still shut down with no end in sight, but investors don’t seem to care.

US STOCKS

SCOREBOARD

Week Ending 10/17/2025

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MARKET RECAP

  • SPX +1.70%.
  • Trump attempted to downplay the recent trade spat between the US and China.
  • Powell indicated that quantitative tightening will possibly end soon and that more interest rate cuts are on the way.
  • There were worries about the credit market beginning to breakdown with problems from First Brands and Tricolor. Jamie Dimon said, “When you see one cockroach, there are probably more.”
  • The government shutdown continues.

EARNING ESTIMATES OVER TIME

SCOREBOARD

Week Ending 9/19/2025

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MARKET RECAP

  • US stocks +1.27%, international +0.53%, bonds -0.25%.
  • The small-cap index broke out to new highs, joining the other indexes.
  • Forward EPS multiples recently reached their highest levels since 2021 (~22.6x). Earnings yields are now below long-term Treasury yields, indicating an expensive market.
  • Last week’s spike in jobless claims reversed; continuing claims remain stable, suggesting no broad labor deterioration.
  • The FOMC cut rates for the first time after months of holding steady, citing “risk management” despite stronger growth and inflation forecasts. Median projections suggest one to two more cuts by year-end.
  • The U.S. dollar index is down over 10%, its most significant drop since 2011, boosting foreign equities and commodities.
  • No matter what you think about tariffs, one benefit to the government is significant revenue. Torsten Slok of Apollo reports that the government is bringing in about $350 billion annually, which would equal about 19% of the annual household income tax.

SCOREBOARD