Category Archives: Uncategorized

Week Ending 11/21/2025

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MARKET RECAP

  • US stocks -1.84%, bonds +0.44%, bitcoin down about 10%.
  • Earnings estimates for the next three years are up five weeks in a row. See the chart below.
  • There were 119,000 jobs added in September, versus a 50,000 estimate, but the July and August employment numbers were cut. The unemployment rate increased to 4.4%, the highest rate in four years.
  • Nvdia reported blockbuster earnings, but that couldn’t curb fears that the AI trade is way overdone and the massive capital spending plans are going to come back to haunt companies.

EARNINGS ESTIMATES OVER TIME

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Week Ending 10/31/2025

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MARKET RECAP

  • US stocks +0.51%, international -0.43%, bonds -0.59%.

Below are highlights for the week courtesy of Perplexity’s Comet:

Financial markets from October 27 to October 31, 2025, saw a strong finish to the month, with major tech earnings, a Federal Reserve rate cut, and significant stock index gains taking center stage. Below are the key highlights for that week.wsj+2​

US Stock Market Performance

  • The S&P 500 rose by about 2% for the month, closing above 6,900 for the first time.bilello+1​

  • The Nasdaq surged 4.1% in October, with Amazon’s stellar earnings giving it an additional boost—Amazon stock jumped 9.6% on strong cloud growth and infrastructure expansion.cnbc+1​

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a small 0.1% gain on Friday, capping a sixth consecutive month of gains, a streak unseen since 2018.wsj+1​

  • Apple posted record sales with optimism for the December quarter, although its shares ended 0.4% lower after volatile trading.wsj​

  • Meanwhile, Meta Platforms and Microsoft shares fell due to concerns over increased expenditures on artificial intelligence initiatives.wsj​

  • Positive momentum was driven by continued robust performance from “Mag7” mega-cap tech stocks (Tesla, Google, Nvidia, etc.), despite job cut headlines from Amazon and Target.investrade​

Interest Rates and Central Banks

  • The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% to a 3.75%–4% range, its second straight cut this cycle, but signaled uncertainty about further reductions, causing expectations for another cut this year to fall.weforum​

  • Rate-cut optimism further fueled market gains and drove yields on Treasuries lower.cnbc+1​

International Markets

  • Japan’s Nikkei 225 soared to an all-time high, marking its largest monthly gain since 1990.wsj​

  • Most other major international markets lagged, partly due to lingering concerns about China’s property market and slow global growth.weforum​

Commodities and Crypto

  • Chevron and ExxonMobil posted lower profits but pledged to expand production; energy stocks were mixed on their respective results.finance.yahoo+1​

  • Bitcoin broke its seven-year streak of October gains, ending the month with a loss—the first time since 2018.reuters​

Notable Corporate/Economic Developments

  • Market breadth was strong, with advancers outnumbering decliners and volatility (VIX) dropping substantially as investors piled back into tech and momentum plays.investrade​

  • Bank of America reshuffled leadership in its global markets unit, and Berkshire Hathaway prepared for a leadership transition with Warren Buffett delegating future annual letters.reuters​

The final week of October 2025 was marked by optimism in US equities—especially large-cap tech—on strong earnings, easing monetary policy, and subsiding volatility, though not all sectors or global regions participated equally in the rally.cnbc+2​

  1. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-10-31-2025
  2. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/30/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
  3. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/10/us-fed-cut-rate-outlook-temper-and-other-finance-news-to-know/
  4. https://bilello.blog/2025/the-week-in-charts-10-29-25
  5. https://www.investrade.com/market-review-october-27-2025/
  6. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-climb-to-cap-winning-month-as-strong-earnings-easing-rates-fuel-amazon-tech-stocks-200208645.html
  7. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/
  8. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-30/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates
  9. https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-cautious-fed-trump-china-deal-meta-fall-alphabet-up-apple-amazon
  10. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/stock-market-news-oct-28-2025
  11. https://www.investopedia.com/dow-jones-today-10232025-11835434
  12. https://madisoninvestments.com/resources/monthly_market_update_october_2025
  13. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3bU2bKpfCQ

 

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Week Ending 10/24/2025

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MARKET RECAP

  • US stocks +1.96%, international stocks +1.01%, bonds +1.08%, bitcoin +4.2%, gold -2.95%.
  • Stocks closed at record highs on Friday, as stocks gapped higher.
  • Earnings are coming in strong, +9.2% based on 29% reporting, and 87% have beaten estimates.
  • Headline CPI was 0.3%, just below the 0.4% consensus. That was deemed sufficient to give the go-ahead for another interest rate cut at the next meeting.
  • The government is still shut down with no end in sight, but investors don’t seem to care.

US STOCKS

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Week Ending 10/17/2025

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MARKET RECAP

  • SPX +1.70%.
  • Trump attempted to downplay the recent trade spat between the US and China.
  • Powell indicated that quantitative tightening will possibly end soon and that more interest rate cuts are on the way.
  • There were worries about the credit market beginning to breakdown with problems from First Brands and Tricolor. Jamie Dimon said, “When you see one cockroach, there are probably more.”
  • The government shutdown continues.

EARNING ESTIMATES OVER TIME

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Week Ending 9/19/2025

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MARKET RECAP

  • US stocks +1.27%, international +0.53%, bonds -0.25%.
  • The small-cap index broke out to new highs, joining the other indexes.
  • Forward EPS multiples recently reached their highest levels since 2021 (~22.6x). Earnings yields are now below long-term Treasury yields, indicating an expensive market.
  • Last week’s spike in jobless claims reversed; continuing claims remain stable, suggesting no broad labor deterioration.
  • The FOMC cut rates for the first time after months of holding steady, citing “risk management” despite stronger growth and inflation forecasts. Median projections suggest one to two more cuts by year-end.
  • The U.S. dollar index is down over 10%, its most significant drop since 2011, boosting foreign equities and commodities.
  • No matter what you think about tariffs, one benefit to the government is significant revenue. Torsten Slok of Apollo reports that the government is bringing in about $350 billion annually, which would equal about 19% of the annual household income tax.

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Week Ending 9/12/2025

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MARKET RECAP

  • US stocks +1.49%, international +1.83%, bonds +0.44%.
  • The 2-year note is now at 3.56%.
  • Investors are counting on a fed rate cut.
  • Initial jobless claims hit the highest level in four years. Texas appeared to be a significant contributor and may be linked to the floods in early September. Remove Texas, and the number aligns with recent reports.
  • Real-time economic activity trackers are holding steady. Restaurant bookings, US air travel, Las Vegas visitor volumes, same-store retail sales, and hotel bookings are all solid, according to Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok.
  • CPI was up 0.4% month over month and 2.9% year over year. Core CPI was up by 3.1% year over year and 0.3% for the month.
  • Conservative personality Charlie Kirk was assassinated at a college campus in Utah, at one of his famous “Prove me wrong” events, casting a dark pall on the state of the country.

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Week Ending 9/5/2025

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MARKET RECAP

  • SP500 +0.33%.
  • Coming into the week, the SP500 is trading at 22.5x earnings over the next 12 months, way above the 16.8 average since 2000. The 10 companies in the index make up 39.5% of its market cap, which is the highest percentage on record. On an equal weight basis, the index trades at 1.76 times sales compared to the long-term average of 1.43.
  • Only 22,000 new jobs in August, less than the forecast of 75.000. Manufacturing lost 12.000 jobs. June was revised to a loss of 13,000 jobs, the first loss since December of 2020. The unemployment rate increased to 4.3% from 4.2%.
  • Trump continues to hammer away at the Fed, demanding the firing/resignation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The market has so far shrugged off the attack on Fed independence, but this is unprecedented, and at some point, the market might take a more serious notice.

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