MARKET RECAP

• A late Friday comeback saved the S&P 500 from closing 20% below its January high. The index is down 18.7% from its January 3rd high. The Nasdaq is down by 28.2%. For the week, the overall US market fell by 2.78%, but international stocks managed a 1.35% rally. Bonds were up by 0.63% as the 10-year treasury yield fell by 15 basis points to 2.78%.
• The Dow closed lower for the 8th week in a row, the last time that happened was in the Great Depression.  The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are down seven straight weeks, the longest streak since 2001. The main fear driving prices lower is now the threat of a recession as opposed to higher interest rates.
• A recession is on the way according to more and more executives and government officials. Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf said “It’s going to be hard to avoid some kind of recession. Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke said “Even under the benign scenario, we should have a slowing economy.” Everyone is in agreement that two things are certain in the near and intermediate term – higher prices and higher unemployment – stagflation.
• The fear of a recession is also starting to get priced into bond markets. The yield on the 10-year treasury peaked two weeks ago and has fallen as fears of a recession are starting to rise. Even some booming commodities are falling in price, nickel is down by 42% and copper is down by 13% since the March highs. Both metals benefit from a strong economy.
• Don’t look now but initial claims for unemployment insurance, while still at historically low levels, has started to turn up in recent weeks.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-15/luna-crash-this-crypto-insider-warned-of-terra-ust-s-collapse?sref=BT5C1Eq6

MARKET RECAP

• Equities fell by 2.45% in the US. However, stocks had a big Friday rally, with the NASDAQ up by 3.8% and the S&P 500 by 2.4%. That followed a late Thursday rally. From the Thursday low to the Friday close, the S&P 500 rallied by 4.3%. Up volume represented more than 90% of the overall volume on Friday, a somewhat rare occurrence that has often (not always) been associated with the end, or short-term end, of bear markets.

• From it’s intraday high on January 4th to its intraday low on May 12th, the S&P fell by 19.92%, about as close to a bear market as you can get (normally defined as a 20% drop).
• The consensus everywhere is that there is more downside to come.
• The S&P 500 has fallen for six straight weeks, the last time that happened was during the 2011 European debt crisis.
• Investors are more and more coming to the belief that a recession is likely. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday that getting inflation under control could case some short-term pain to the economy.
• The producer-price index increased at an 11% annual rate in April, down from the month prior but higher than the consensus estimate. The CPI was up by 8.3%, down from 8.5%, but there is little evidence that inflation has peaked. The April decline in energy prices has reversed, and oil prices are close to highs, and inflation in the service sector is ramping up. One spot of good news, prices of soybeans should drop this year on higher supply and lower demand.
• In what might be a sign of a turn in hiring, some tech companies have indicated their fast pace of hiring is coming to a pause. Twitter, Amazon, Uber, Facebook and other have indicated they are either freezing or slowing down hiring. Carvana and Peloton have announced layoffs.
• The cryptocurrency stablecoin TerraUSD, designed to always trade at $1, ended the week at 13 cents. Even in the world of digital assets, or maybe more so in the world of digital assets, a run on the bank (without the Fed backing you) is almost impossible to stop. Terra’s sister currency Luna, fared even worse, it was trading at less than one-half cent, down from $60 on Monday.
• Elon Musk’s deal for Twitter is on hold, Musk puts the blame on the number of fake accounts. Twitter shares were already substantially below the $54.20 offer price (around $45) reflecting a belief that the deal wouldn’t go through.

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MARKET RECAP

• The overall US markets fell by 0.45%, but the S&P 500 was somewhat flat, down by 0.16%, the NASDAQ was down by 1.28%. International stocks fell by 2.27% and bonds were off by 1.09%. The yield on the 10-year rose by 23 basis points to 3.12%.
• The NASQAQ (see below) is down 24% from its November 19th high, and the S&P 500 is down 14% from its January 3rd  high. Watch CNBC, read Barron’s, etc, the consensus is that there is more downside to come. That, of course, doesn’t necessarily mean that will happen, if anything, it could be a contrary indicator that we are getting closer to the bottom. Time will tell.
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• With equity prices down, and interest rates up, CurrentMarketValuation.com runs an analysis of various valuation models, taking a long-term view, and in terms of the S&P 500 versus the 10-year, they rate the S&P as fairly valued. While the S&P is 1.3 standard deviations above its trendline, interest rates are 1 standard deviation below, netting out at a fair valuation. That trade-off could change though, if interest rates continue to advance and/or earnings decline.
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• A look at the chart below, which shows the p/e of the S&P 500 as well as the 10-year, comparing to 2013 as an example, the 10-year was 3.04% compared to 3.05% today, and the p/e was 16.85 versus 18.12 today. That would imply another 7% on the downside assuming interest rates and earnings projections remained the same. But that is just one data point.
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• The Fed raised rates by 0.5% and said they would sell down the balance sheet by $45 billion per month to start and then by $90 billion per month starting in a few months.
• Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, in a WSJ interview, said there are substantial economic risks to the economy at this point and that a combination of high inflation and low unemployment has historically led to a recession within two years.
• The labor market remains strong with 428,000 new jobs added in April making it 12 straight months of 400,000 plus gains. The unemployment rate stayed steady at 3.6%. Wage growth came in a 5.5% just off from 5.6% the previous month and less than the 8.5% increase in consumer prices in March compared to the previous year. The negative news was a decline in the work force by 363,000, the first decline since September and there was no clear explanation as to why. Total employment is still off by 1.2 million jobs compared to pre-pandemic numbers.
• Productivity fell by 7.5%, the worst number in 75 years.

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MARKET RECAP

• A brutal month comes to an end as the S&P 500 drops by 8.8% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 13.3%. For the week the overall US market fell by 3.43%. International stocks were down by 2.02%. Bonds stabilized somewhat, falling by 0.07%.

• The futures market anticipates a fed funds rate of 2.75% to 3% by year-end, up from 0.25% to 0.50% right now and higher than the 1.9% median projection in March. That has pushed the yield on the 10-year up by 139 basis points this year. As rates move higher p/e multipliers diminish, and that is what has happened.
• The advance estimate of Q1 GDP actually fell by 1.4% annualized after a 6.9% advance in Q4.
• The Fed will likely give guidance on how they will reduce their balance sheet this week. J.P. Morgan anticipates over the next four years, the impact of selling off the balance sheet would be equivalent to 2.1% in rate hikes.
• With about 70% of S&P 500 companies reporting so far, Q1 profits are on pace to grow by more than 10%. But the market has not been happy with big tech, which carries most of the market weight, AAPL was down 3.7% on a disappointing outlook and GOOGL down by 4.6% last week. The big hit was Amazon, dropping by 14%.

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MARKET RECAP

• US stocks fell by 2.76% for the week. Stocks were actually up after the Wednesday close by about 1.5%, but that is when Fed Chair Powell pretty much  much promised a half-point increase at the next meeting on May 3-4. And then St. Louis Fed President James Bullard started talk of a 3/4 point rate increase, although said he prefers a series of half-point increases. Maybe the back to back comments were enough to jar investors into believing what the Fed has more or less been saying for weeks, that much higher rates are on the way. The market would then fall by almost 4% on Thursday and Friday.
• The Fed-funds futures market is looking for 1/2 point next month, and 3/4 of a point for the June meeting, and then 1/2 point in late July. That increased the 2-year note by 27 basis points to 2.71%.
• PMI reports are indicating a slight slow down in economies around the world The composite PMI for the US came in at 55.1, down from 57.7 in March. It was the lowest reading in three months. Services took the brunt of the hit, down to 54.7 from 58 while manufacturing  was strong, rising to 59.7 from 58.8, the highest reading in seven month.
• Overseas, Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, reported a drop in the composite PMI to 54.5 in April from 55.1 in March.
• The job market is still strong, weekly jobless claims was less than 200,000 for the ninth consecutive week. The job market hasn’t been this strong since 1969. Housing starts are also strong, permits for new homes is 6.7% higher from one-year ago.

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MARKET RECAP

• US stocks fell by 2.1% as worries about the war in Ukraine, inflation, Fed tightening, higher interest rates, and lower profit margins dragged on the market. International markets were off by 1.18% and bonds dropped by 1.23%.
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• The Producer Price Index (PPI) was up by a record 11.2% in March, year over year. Vegetables were up by 82%, grain by 40%, meat and fish by 23%.
• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up by 8.5% in March compared to the previous year, the biggest increase since 1981. Higher gas prices fueled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused most of the damage.
• The debate is on as to if the economy is booming or busting, or maybe both at the same time.
  • Airlines have been booked solid this holiday weekend without pushback on higher fares, according to the President of Delta.
  • Consumer sales are up, but not in real (inflation-adjusted) terms.
  • Lower-income households are using their credit cards more, indicating they may be struggling with higher prices. Households with incomes under $50,000 spent more on their credit cards on utilities, gasoline, and food.
  • Trucking activity indicates a slow-down in activity.
  • Hourly earnings are showing the strongest gains among lower income groups.
  • Stephanie Pomboy of Market Mavens says that a $41.8 billion surge in consumer credit in February signals that consumers are “now are resorting to desperate measures.”

SCOREBOARD

MARKET RECAP

• Markets fell this week on worried about an economic slowdown and a more aggressive tightening by the Fed.
• Just about everyone at the Fed is talking about tightening quickly. Lael Brainard, the Fed governor awaiting Senate confirmation said the central bank needs to shrink its balance sheet “rapidly.” In a release of the Fed’s minutes from last minutes, officials spoke about reducing the balance sheet by $95 billion per month. That led to a rise in the yield of the 10-year to 2.72%, up 32 basis points for the week, while the 2-year was just up a few basis points to 2.53%, thereby opening up a positive spread between the 10-year and the 2-year.

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MARKET RECAP

• Stocks rallied by 0.21% in the US and by 0.89% outside the US. Bonds were up by 0.76% as interest rates on the 10 and 30-year bonds dropped.
• The US added half a 430,000 jobs in March and February was revised up to 750,000. The unemployment rate fell to 3.6%. Interest rates rose on the news as the numbers reflect a strong job market. Average hourly earnings were up 5.6% from one year ago. The labor force participation rate increased to 62.4%
• But while the jobs report looked good, the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Manger Index (PMI) has been slipping. The March number came in at 57.1%, down from 58.6% in February (above 50 is considered expansionary). The new-order index was 53.8%, a sharp drop from 61.7% in February.
• Biden said he would release one million barrels a day from the strategic reserve for six months to try to lower gasoline prices. Another bad move as that oil should be saved for when we really need it.
• Amazon workers in Staten Island voted to form a union.
• Most economists see a 1 in 3 chance of a recession in the next 12 to 18 months due mainly to the Fed’s not so great record in the past of avoiding recessions when hiking rates.

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MARKET RECAP

• US stocks were up by 1.61% while international stocks were flat. Bonds got hit hard, declining by 1.85% as the yield on the 2 and the 10-year treasury bonds were up by 33 and 34 basis points, respectively, for the week. Crude oil shot higher by 10.49%.
• The recent equity rally is being helped by higher interest rates pushing down the price of bonds, and cash getting murdered by inflation, moving investors back into equities.
• The aggregate bond index is down by 6.8% year-to-date as yields continue to soar and markets price in more tightening and higher rates down the road. Investors are now anticipating half point hikes at the next two Fed meetings in May and June.
• There are small signs that labor participation is beginning to pick up, rising by 0.4% in the three months ending 2/28/22. 1.87 million people went back into the work force which was 3x the rate from the prior three months. There are also indications that the “quit” rate is slowing down.
• Higher inflation and interest rates will slowdown economic growth, with the offset being fading worries about Covid. How that mix all plays out will determine where the economy goes from here.
• The brutal Russian invasion of Ukraine continues.

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