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MARKET RECAP:

• U.S. Stock Market Performance: The S&P 500 posted its strongest monthly gain since November 2023, rising about 6.2% in May, while the Nasdaq surged 9.6%. Despite a volatile session on May 30, the S&P 500 ended nearly flat, reflecting mixed reactions to Trump’s tariff rhetoric. On May 27, U.S. stocks soared, with the Dow up 1.78%, S&P 500 up 2.05%, and Nasdaq up 2.47%, fueled by Trump’s decision to delay a 50% tariff on EU goods until July 9, boosting consumer confidence. However, markets faced uncertainty later in the week as Trump accused China of violating a tariff agreement, escalating trade tensions.
• Tariff Developments: Trump’s tariff policies were a focal point. On May 27, a U.S. Court of International Trade ruling blocked most of Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs, citing overstepped authority, which initially lifted markets. However, on May 30, a federal appeals court reinstated most of these tariffs, creating uncertainty. Investors speculated on the “TACO” trade (Trump Always Chickens Out), expecting Trump might soften his stance, but concerns persisted about alternative import duty measures. A key date to watch is June 5, when plaintiffs in the tariff case must respond to the appeals court.
• Corporate Earnings and Sector Impacts: Nvidia’s earnings on May 28 were a major driver, with revenue of $44.1 billion beating estimates but falling short on adjusted EPS due to a ban on H20 unit shipments to China. Nvidia’s stock rose 3% in extended trading, contributing to a 24% monthly gain. Gap Inc. shares dropped after forecasting a multimillion-dollar hit to 2025 operating income from tariffs, though it maintained its forecast. Broadcom saw strong demand for AI-related chips, projecting a 44% year-over-year AI revenue increase for Q2 2025. Chip designers like Cadence and Synopsys fell after reports of U.S. restrictions on software sales to Chinese firms.
• Economic Indicators: Consumer confidence rebounded in May as trade tensions eased, though concerns about stagnating incomes persisted. U.S. markets showed resilience, with a 1.2% weekly gain and 12% annual increase, supported by expectations of 14% annual earnings growth. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 1.9% to 19.31 on May 29, reflecting heightened uncertainty. Gold prices, volatile around $3,200 in mid-May, were seen as a hedge against instability, with potential for new highs if trade tensions worsened.
• Global Markets: European markets reacted positively to the U.S. tariff block on May 27, with the Stoxx Europe 600 and other indices advancing. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.22% on May 30 amid high inflation (3.6% core in April), while South Korea’s Kospi dropped 0.84%. Germany’s inflation hit 2.1% in May, slightly above estimates.
• Other Developments: The Federal Reserve’s May minutes raised concerns about the U.S. losing its status as a global financial safe haven due to tariffs. Bond yields soared amid gaping budget deficits, adding to market jitters. Investors awaited key data releases in early June, including PMI Manufacturing, unemployment rates, and the Fed’s Beige Book.

(highlights above provided by Grok)

MARKET RECAP

• US stocks fell by 2.58%, international stocks advanced by 0.69%, and bonds declined by 0.43%.
• The 30-year bond yield broke 5%, closing at 5.04%. The 10-year is at 4.51%, that is up 28 basis points in May.
• The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow projects 2.4% growth in Q2.
• Trump turned the positive momentum of the previous week on its head on Monday when he threatened a 50% tariff on all EU goods. He doesn’t learn.Trump should be working towards zero percent tariffs on both sides.
• The House passed the “Big Beautiful [budget] Bill,” which will add an estimated $3 trillion to the deficit, leading to an increase in yields. Need less new tax breaks have been added, such as no tax on tips (cost $125 billion over the decade), no tax on overtime ($62.5 billion), car-loan interest deduction ($57 billion), tax relief for seniors ($25 billion), increased state and local tax deduction cap, and others.
• Trump is passing up very rare opportunity to actually help get our fiscal house in order. He controls both the Senate and the House, and they do whatever he says. He should have implemented real spending cuts, and small tax increases (like a percent or so).
• Senator Ron Johnson plans to make a major effort to stop the bill.

SCOREBOARD

MARKET RECAP

• SPX +5.27%, Russell 2000 +4.46%, Nasdaq +7.15%.
• SPX is now 3% off its record high.
• Stocks have staged a dramatic recovery since the April 8th low. Trump has backed off the dramatic tariff increases over the last few weeks, but he is still insisting on tariffs of at least 10% (at least so far) at best for some nations and more for others. While not nearly as bad as it could be, it is still bad for the economy. And the damage to the American brand make take a long time to recover, if it even does.
• The consensus is that Scott Bessent takes precedence over Peter Navarro. That is a good thing!
• China and the US agreed to reduce tariffs. The US tariff rate on Chinese imports is now 30%, and China will charge the US 10%. The US rate includes a 20% penalty for fetanyl.
• Walmart warned they would increase prices and Trump then laid into them. What does Trump expect? If he doesn’t want Walmart to increase prices then don’t set tariffs.Yes, tariffs lead to price increases!
• Moody’s downgraded US debt.

SPX

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MARKET RECAP

• US stocks were off by 1.14% in a shortened trading week due to Easter.
• Trump’s haphazard trade policy was on full display. Last Friday, it was said that smartphones, computers, and other products would be exempt from tariffs. But over the weekend, some officials said that was wrong.
• On Monday, Trump said was considering pausing some auto tariffs. Hasn’t he said that before?
• On Wednesday, the administration announced new US restrictions on exports to China, resulting in a 3.1% loss for the Nasdaq and 2.2% for the S&P 500.
• China told its airlines not to order planes from Boeing.
• The US dollar continues to weaken, and the American brand continues to suffer. The amount of damage Trump is causing is enormous. He has this one crazy economist, Peter Navarro, who is just blind to the damage he is causing. The irony is that the big winner in all of this might be China, and maybe the rest of the world.
• Look at the chart below, which shows the performance of the Vanguard All-World Index (x-USA) versus the Vanugard Total Stock Market Index (the US total market). You see the international stocks breaking their negative trend to the upside right when Trump started getting crazy about the tariffs (late January / early February).

SCOREBOARD

MARKET RECAP

• Stocks had a big rally. The SPX was up by 5.67%, and the NASDAQ by 7.29%.On Wednesday, stocks rallied by over 9% when Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for just about everyone except China. However, the 10% tariff will stay in place.
• Supposedly, about 75 countries have reached out to negotiate a deal. As we have written before, if we can get tariffs to zero, then that would be a long-term win, minus the short-term damage, which is not minimal.
• But even with the pause, 145% tariffs with China and the 10% flat rate tariff (with some exceptions) is still a huge problem.
• In a bad sign, the yield on the 10-year treasury shot up from 4.01% to 4.48%. When inflation expectations skyrocket, interest needs to increase to compensate. In addition, the US seems to be losing its allure as a safe-haven for investors.The yield on the 2-year went from 3.68% to 3.96%, and the thirty-year from 4.41% to 4.85%.

US STOCKS

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MARKET RECAP

• Trump is leading us to economic suicide – see our article on tariffs – https://envisionco.net/?p=5448.
• US stocks -9.13%, Nasdaq -10.02%. It was the worst week since March of 2020.
• Small caps (-25%) and the Nasdaq (-22%) are now in a bear market.
• Stocks are now trading at 19x 2025 estimates, but the estimates will come down.
• The VIX is at 45, a very high number historically.
• The 2-year yield is down 57 basis points year-to-date, at 3.68%. The 10-year has declined by the same amount and is now at 4.01%.
• In some good news, jobs increased by 228k in March, although that is a backward-looking number and was before all of the tariff craziness.
• Recession odds are dramatically increasing; JPM has a 60% probability.
• The only faint hope is that the courts rule that there is no “emergency” and Trump cannot just randomly increase tariffs, or that Congress pulls back the authority from Trump, or that this is indeed, just a negotiating ploy and the goal is to get everyone to zero percent tariff rates, but the damage will still be severe unless these policies are reversed very soon.

SPX

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