MARKET RECAP
Barron’s wrote about the AI Capex bubble and when it might burst. Historically, major capex cycles don’t top out until spending reaches about 25% of GDP. With US GDP currently at about $30 trillion, that would mean about $7.5 trillion in capex, and that probably won’t be reached until the beginning of the next decade. Another key point is that it takes some kind of external shock, like a policy change or monetary tightening, to trigger the collapse.
SCOREBOARD
MARKET RECAP
U.S. equities declined for the week ending August 21, 2026, with the S&P 500 falling 1.43% to close at 7,674.37, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 0.85% to 53,277.01, and the Nasdaq Composite sliding 2.05% to 26,180.45 (Friday closes versus the prior Friday). The pullback snapped multi-week winning streaks for the S&P and Nasdaq amid rising longer-term Treasury yields, higher oil prices tied to Middle East/Iran tensions, and broader risk-off sentiment, though indexes rebounded on Friday.
International stocks, proxied by VXUS, finished essentially flat with a negligible gain of about 0.01% (closing near $87.71 versus roughly $87.70 the prior Friday). The 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 4 basis points over the week to around 4.74%, as concerns over government debt, inflation, and financing costs outweighed a mid-week intervention. Bitcoin surged roughly 24% to the mid-$78,000 range (from around $63,000), while gold advanced about 5.5–5.6% (Comex settling near $4,624).
Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15 fell to 206,000 from a revised 212,000, remaining at historically low levels and signaling continued labor-market resilience despite softer hiring trends in recent months. Geopolitically, ongoing U.S.-Iran frictions and related oil-supply worries added to market pressure, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s announcement of increased longer-dated bond buybacks (financed by shorter-term issuance) produced only a brief dip in yields before they rebounded, with the effort widely viewed as a temporary and ultimately unsuccessful intervention against fundamental fiscal and inflation pressures.
MARKET RECAP
Overall, the week reflected a clear risk-on tone driven by cooling labor-market signals and resilient corporate results, lifting equities, crypto, and gold while yields eased, even as geopolitical flashpoints in Iran and Ukraine, alongside the approaching midterms, continue to inject uncertainty into the broader outlook.
MARKET RECAP
SCOREBOARD
MARKET RECAP
U.S. equities finished lower for the week ending July 24, 2026. The S&P 500 declined 0.61% from its prior Friday close of 7,457.69 to 7,411.98. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.38%, closing at 51,947.25 versus 52,146.42 a week earlier. The Nasdaq Composite dropped more sharply, losing 2.13% from 25,520.24 to 24,975.82, pressured by weakness in technology and AI-related shares.
If you are looking to build long-term wealth for a child in your life, Section 530A Trump Accounts offer a unique way to start early. Created under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), these accounts act as a pre-funded starter retirement account for kids under 18, complete with a $1,000 federal seed grant for eligible children born between 2025 and 2028.
While Trump Accounts work similarly to traditional IRAs in the long run, the process of opening and managing one is slightly different from setting up a standard brokerage account. Here is a straightforward walkthrough of how the process works and what to expect at each step.
Unlike opening a regular bank or investment account, opening a Trump Account starts directly with the federal government.
To get started, an authorized adult—usually a parent or legal guardian—must file IRS Form 4547 (Election to Establish a Trump Account). This form registers the child as the account owner and allows you to claim the $1,000 federal grant if your child qualifies.
You can submit Form 4547 in one of three ways:
Online via the IRS: Through your official IRS Online Account.
On Your Mobile Device: Through the official Trump Accounts mobile app.
With Your Tax Return: Filed alongside your annual federal income tax return.
Once the IRS processes and approves your Form 4547 submission, you will receive confirmation to activate the account.
Where to Go: Head to the official portal ([www.trumpaccount.com](https://www.trumpaccount.com)) or open the Trump Accounts app to complete activation.
Central Administrator: Currently, Robinhood serves as the central platform for initial account creation and administration.
Future Portability: While you must open and activate the account through the central system first, options to transfer or roll over the account to other financial institutions are expected to open up in the future.
Once activated, you can begin contributing funds and setting up your investment strategy:
Contribution Limits: Family, friends, and even employers can contribute up to a total of $5,000 per year in after-tax dollars. The child does not need to have earned income to receive contributions.
Employer Match: Employers can contribute up to $2,500 per year toward the $5,000 annual limit.
Investment Options: Prior to age 18, investments are kept straightforward. Funds are invested in broad-market U.S. index options, such as funds tracking the S&P 500.
Tax Tip: Keep good records of the personal contributions you make! Private contributions go in using after-tax dollars, whereas government seed funds and market growth are pre-tax. Good record-keeping helps ensure your child isn’t double-taxed on those contributions when they make withdrawals years down the road.
During childhood, you control and manage the account as the parent or guardian. However, on January 1st of the calendar year your child turns 18, a few key shifts happen automatically:
Conversion to a Traditional IRA: The account officially transitions from a Trump Account into a standard Traditional IRA.
Transfer of Ownership: Full control and administrative responsibility pass directly to your child.
Investment Freedom: Your child can expand their investments beyond broad index funds into individual stocks, bonds, or other asset classes.
Standard IRA Rules Apply: Withdrawals before age 59½ generally face a 10% penalty plus ordinary income tax, though standard IRA exemptions apply (such as using funds for higher education tuition or a first-time home purchase).
Beyond the Headlines: Navigating “Trump Accounts,” 529s, and Custodial Options for Your Child’s Future
With the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), parents and caregivers have a new financial tool to evaluate: Section 530A “Trump Accounts”. These accounts join established options like 529 Plans, Custodial Brokerage Accounts (UTMA/UGMA), and Minor Roth IRAs.
Choosing the right account—or combination of accounts—requires balancing immediate tax benefits, long-term growth potential, investment control, and the intended use of the funds.
Here is a breakdown of how these vehicles compare and a strategic framework for prioritizing your contributions.
Trump Accounts are structured as a child-centric version of a Traditional IRA.
The Pitch: Children born between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2028, who are U.S. citizens are eligible for a one-time $1,000 federal grant.
Funding: Anyone can contribute using after-tax dollars, up to $5,000 annually per beneficiary. Uniquely, the child does not need earned income to accept contributions.
Investment Profile: Prior to age 18, assets are locked into broad-market U.S. index funds (such as S&P 500 trackers).
Taxation: Growth is tax-deferred. Withdrawals after age 18 are taxed as ordinary income on the growth/pre-tax portions. Non-qualified withdrawals prior to age 59½ face standard IRA restrictions and a 10% penalty (with exceptions for qualified higher education, first-time home purchases, and minor emergencies).
The premier vehicle for education-targeted savings.
Tax Edge: Contributions are made with after-tax dollars, but all growth and withdrawals are completely federal- and state-tax-free when used for qualified education expenses (higher education, trade schools, or up to $10,000/year in K–12 tuition).
Control & Flexibility: Parents retain full control indefinitely. Beneficiaries can be changed to other family members, and up to $35,000 in unused funds can be rolled over into a Roth IRA for the beneficiary (subject to annual IRA limits and account tenure rules).
Taxable brokerage accounts managed by an adult for the benefit of a minor.
Taxation: Subject to “Kiddie Tax” rules. The first $1,350 of unearned income is tax-exempt, the next $1,350 is taxed at the child’s lower tax bracket, and earnings above $2,700 are taxed at the parents’ rate.
Flexibility & Control: Zero restrictions on how money is spent, provided it directly benefits the child (cars, sports travel, early milestones). However, full control shifts entirely to the child once they reach the legal age of majority (18 to 21, depending on the state).
The ultimate tax-free retirement chassis for working youth.
Requirement: The child must have legitimate earned income (W-2 or documented self-employment).
Tax Edge: Contributions are made after-tax, but growth and qualified withdrawals in retirement are 100% tax-free. Original contributions can be withdrawn at any time without tax or penalty.
Determining where to deposit the next dollar comes down to tax efficiency and intended use. Here is a recommended framework for families:
Tier 1: Free Government Money – claim the $1,000 Federal Grant (Trump Account, if eligible)
Tier 2: Education Savings – fund a 529 Plan (to cover projected K-12 / College costs)
Tier 3: Earned Income Optimization – fund a Minor Roth IRA (if the child works)
Tier 4: Long-Term Wealth & Pre-18 Flexibility – Trump account contributions or a custodial account
If you have a child born between 2025 and 2028, file IRS Form 4547 (electronically or with your tax return) to establish a Trump Account and capture the $1,000 federal grant. Even without adding personal funds, that initial seed compounded over decades provides an automatic head start.
If education is a priority, direct long-term savings into a 529 Plan. Complete tax-exemption on investment growth provides a significantly higher net return than the tax-deferred growth of a Trump Account. Furthermore, if funds remain unused, up to $35,000 can be rolled into a Roth IRA later on.
If your child earns income (modeling, refereeing soccer matches, household W-2 employment), prioritize a Minor Roth IRA over a Trump Account. Both use after-tax contributions, but the Roth IRA yields tax-free distributions down the road rather than taxable distributions.
When deciding where to park additional general-purpose savings:
Select a Trump Account if you value tax-deferred compounding for long-term adult milestones (retirement, first home) and prefer automated, low-cost index investing.
Select a UTMA/UGMA Account if you need liquidity to pay for major pre-18 expenses (e.g., competitive sports fees, a vehicle) or want complete freedom over custom asset allocation.
No single account meets every need. Combining the free seed money of a Trump Account with the tax-exempt growth of a 529 Plan creates a balanced foundation for both early adult needs and ultra long-term financial independence.
Disclaimer: Tax laws are complex and subject to change. Consult a Certified Public Accountant (CPA) or financial advisor to customize an investment structure tailored to your family’s tax bracket and financial goals.
MARKET RECAP
