Week Ending 07/02/2026

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MARKET RECAP

US equity markets posted solid weekly gains for the week ending July 2, 2026 (with markets closed July 3-4 for the holiday), driven by a softer-than-expected June jobs report that eased rate-hike fears and supported a rotation into cyclical sectors.

The S&P 500 rose from approximately 7,354 on the prior Friday to close at 7,483.24, a gain of roughly +1.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed from 51,876 to a record 52,900.07, up about +2.0% for its fourth straight weekly advance. The Nasdaq Composite advanced from around 25,298 to 25,832.67, gaining roughly +2.1% despite some intraday tech weakness on July 2.
International stocks, as proxied by the Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS), showed modest gains. VXUS closed the week at approximately 84.84 (up from around 84.48 the prior Friday), for a weekly advance of roughly +0.4%. This reflected mixed global performance amid U.S. data spillover effects and varying regional economic signals.
In fixed income, the 10-year Treasury yield edged higher. It rose from 4.38% on June 26 to close the week near 4.49%, reflecting some recalibration after the jobs data tempered extreme dovish bets while still supporting overall risk appetite.
Bitcoin and gold both advanced. Bitcoin moved from around $60,000 mid-to-late June to the low-to-mid $63,000 range by early July, posting a solid weekly gain on risk-on sentiment. Gold climbed over 2% for the week, trading near $4,170–$4,200 per ounce after four weeks of declines, as weaker U.S. employment data reduced near-term Fed tightening expectations.
Overall, markets ended the shortened week on a constructive note with broad participation and record highs for the Dow, though rotation away from mega-cap tech and upcoming data will likely keep volatility in focus.
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Week Ending 6/26/2026

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MARKET RECAP

US stock markets posted a mixed performance over the trading week ending June 26, 2026. The S&P 500 fell 1.95% from its June 18 close of 7,500.58 to finish at 7,354.02. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.60%, advancing from 51,564.70 to 51,876.11. The Nasdaq Composite declined 4.60% from 26,517.93 to 25,297.62, pressured by weakness in major technology names.

International equities, as measured by the VXUS ETF, declined 2.64%. The fund closed at 84.48 on June 26 after trading at 86.77 on June 18.In the bond market, the 10-year Treasury yield eased 8 basis points over the period. It moved from 4.46% on June 18 to 4.38% on June 26, reflecting modest improvement in fixed-income sentiment amid the equity pullback.
Bitcoin ended the week near $59,800 while gold traded around $4,080–$4,090 per ounce, both lower than the prior week’s levels. Overall, the week featured notable weakness in U.S. large-cap growth stocks and international equities, with bonds benefiting from lower yields and commodities showing continued softness.
THE FIVE BULLET BRIEF

  • Total vs. Core PCE: Monthly Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) came in slightly below consensus forecasts with total prices up 0.4% MoM. However, Core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.32% unrounded, translating to an annualized monthly jump of 3.9%.

  • Economic Growth Upgraded: In its final revision, Q1 GDP growth was adjusted upward by 0.5 percentage points to a final annualized rate of 2.1%. This adjustment occurred despite a 0.6 percentage point downward revision to core services consumption, which was entirely offset by a sharp decline in nominal and real goods imports.

  • Income & Spending Surge: Both monthly personal income and consumer spending expanded by 0.7% MoM, coming in ahead of consensus expectations. The personal savings rate held steady at 3.0% following upward adjustments to prior metrics.

  • Corporate Hardware Hikes: Driven by compounding memory hardware and component expenses, Apple announced sweeping 20% price increases across its iPad and Mac segments—with certain products like the Mac Studio rising up to 32.5%. 

  • Record Issuance: The primary US corporate bond market recorded a massive $30 billion single-day session, pushing year-to-date issuance past $1.2 trillion. This trajectory puts 2026 on track for a record-shattering $2.2 trillion in total annual volume. Huge infrastructure funding deals include mega-issues from Amazon ($37 billion), Meta ($30 billion), and a recent $25 billion investment-grade corporate bond package from SpaceX.

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Week Ending 06/12/2026

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MARKET RECAP

US stock markets posted modest gains over the past week, rebounding from earlier volatility amid hopes for geopolitical progress and stabilizing oil prices.

The S&P 500 closed at 7,431.46 on Friday, June 12, up approximately 0.65% from the prior Friday’s close around 7,383.74. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 51,202.26, gaining about 0.66% week-over-week from roughly 50,867. The Nasdaq Composite ended at 25,888.84, rising modestly by around 0.7% for the week. Gains were supported by broadening participation beyond mega-cap tech, with small-caps outperforming.
International stocks, as proxied by the VXUS ETF, outperformed US benchmarks with stronger weekly gains. The fund closed at 85.68 on June 12, up roughly 3.2% from its June 5 close near 83.03, reflecting positive momentum in global equities outside the US amid easing energy concerns.
In the bond market, the 10-year Treasury yield edged lower over the week. It moved from around 4.55% early in the period to approximately 4.49% by Friday’s close, signaling some easing in rate expectations alongside mixed inflation data.
Bitcoin and gold showed divergent paths. Bitcoin rose notably, climbing from about $60,867 on June 6 to around $64,421 by June 13 (with Friday closes reflecting continued recovery toward the mid-$60ks). Gold experienced volatility but recovered some ground, trading near $4,200–$4,300 per ounce by week’s end after dipping earlier, supported by safe-haven flows yet pressured by a firmer dollar at times.
Overall, markets demonstrated resilience this week with a risk-on tilt driven by de-escalation hopes and sector rotation, though upcoming Fed decisions and data will likely set the tone ahead. Investors remain watchful of inflation trends and geopolitical developments.
THE FIVE-BULLET BRIEF

1. Shift in the Credit Intensity of US GDP Growth

A significant shift has emerged in how debt is fueling US economic output. According to the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds report, domestic debt expanded at a 12.3% annualized pace in Q1, pushing federal debt to nearly 110% of GDP. Outside of the 2020 pandemic anomalies, nonfinancial corporate leverage marked its second-largest quarterly increase relative to GDP since 2008, driven heavily by AI infrastructure borrowing. This structural shift suggests that the private sector’s multi-year deleveraging process has reversed into a tailwind, meaning the Federal Reserve may need to remain aggressive to reliably curb sticky inflationary pressures.

2. High-Profile SpaceX Public Debut Captures Market Attention

The financial markets were dominated by the massive public debut of SpaceX (SPCX) on secondary markets. After being co-led by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, institutional book-building closed out a healthy four times oversubscribed and priced at $135 per share. Shares surged to close just above $160, valuing the company at over $2 trillion and cementing it as the sixth-largest publicly traded US corporation. While the blockbuster listing energized market sentiment, it triggered a severe “sell-the-news” rout for other space equities, which plummeted by an average of 10.5% during the session.

3. Mixed Consumer and Producer Price Pressures

The latest government data presents a complicated, mixed picture for inflation. May Consumer Price Index (CPI) advanced 0.5% month-over-month and 4.2% year-over-year, though Core CPI came in a notch softer than expected at 0.2% (+2.9% YoY). Constructively, core consumer goods ex-used-autos dropped at a 1.5% annualized rate, hinting that tariff pass-through costs are cooling. However, wholesale metrics remain incredibly sticky; the May Producer Price Index (PPI) beat expectations by rising 6.5% year-over-year, while “supercore” PPI jumped to 5.1%—marking some of the highest wholesale input pressures seen outside of the pandemic shock.

4. Preliminary Diplomatic Breakthrough Shakes Up Energy Markets

Geopolitical friction in the Middle East eased substantially following a surprise announcement by the Trump administration of a preliminary diplomatic settlement with Iran. Front-month Brent crude oil futures tumbled roughly $3 per barrel to close near $87, their lowest level since military strikes began in February. While regional agencies note that the finalized text still requires full ratification, the core draft framework involves lifting the naval blockade and suspending primary energy sanctions within 30 days in exchange for systematically reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This potential resumption of oil flows has rapidly deflated the geopolitical risk premium embedded in energy assets.

5. AI Capital Expenditures Reshape US Trade Dynamics

The fundamental structure of US international trade is undergoing a massive transformation fueled by the ongoing artificial intelligence buildout. While the headline April trade deficit arrived roughly as expected at $55.9 billion, import categories explicitly tied to AI—such as semiconductors, advanced computing machinery, and accessories—surged to a record 16.5% of total inbound goods. This represents a vertical 237% increase since late 2023. Without this massive technology investment boom, counterfactual analysis indicates that the current goods trade deficit would be sliced exactly in half from $84 billion to $43 billion.

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Week Ending 6/5/2026

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MARKET RECAP

US stock markets retreated notably last week as robust employment figures sparked a jump in bond yields and fresh worries about delayed monetary easing, ending a string of advances.

The S&P 500 slipped from roughly 7,580 on the prior Friday to close at 7,383.74, recording a weekly loss of about 2.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eased from near 51,000 levels to 50,866.78, finishing modestly lower by around 0.3%. The Nasdaq Composite posted the largest decline, falling from about 26,973 to 25,709.43 for a drop of roughly 4.7%, with technology and chip stocks leading the selloff.
International equities, tracked via the VXUS ETF, followed suit with weakness. The fund moved from around 86.25 area to close at 83.03, equating to a weekly decline of approximately 3.7% as global sentiment turned more cautious.
The bond market saw higher yields, with the 10-year Treasury rate climbing from 4.45% on May 29 to 4.55% by June 5, an increase of 10 basis points after the stronger-than-forecast May jobs report tempered hopes for imminent Fed cuts. Bitcoin faced sharp pressure, tumbling from the low-73,000 range late May to near 60,900, a weekly slide exceeding 16%. Gold also gave back ground, declining from over 4,500/oz toward about 4,330/oz for a roughly 4% weekly loss amid rising yields and a firmer dollar.
In summary, risk assets corrected after recent strength, with growth-oriented names hit hardest by shifting policy expectations; participants now turn their focus to upcoming inflation readings and central bank commentary for fresh cues.
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Week Ending 05/29/2026

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MARKET RECAP

US stock markets delivered strong results during the abbreviated trading week ending May 29, 2026, pushing major indexes to fresh record highs on the back of robust corporate earnings, AI enthusiasm, and reduced geopolitical risks. The S&P 500 advanced 1.4%, finishing at 7,580.06 compared to 7,473.47 the previous Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.9% to close at 51,032.46, marking its first-ever trip above the 51,000 level. The Nasdaq Composite outperformed, rising 2.4% to end at 26,972.62.

International equities followed suit, as the VXUS ETF (tracking global stocks ex-US) gained approximately 1.8% for the week, closing near 86.06.
Bond yields moved lower, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping roughly 11 basis points from 4.56% on May 22 to about 4.45% by week’s end, as softer economic signals boosted demand for safer assets.

Bitcoin declined modestly by around 2.8%, moving from near $75,488 to approximately $73,372, while Gold held relatively steady in the mid-$4,500-per-ounce range with limited net movement.

In summary, the week reinforced a positive market backdrop with US indexes setting new peaks, though participants remain watchful of elevated valuations ahead of key upcoming data releases.

Financial Markets & Technology Sector

  • Bull Market Milestone: The current market trajectory officially crossed 1,325 days, surpassing the 1962–1966 run to become the ninth longest bull market on record. The index is up 111.5% during this period.
  • Tech Sector Streaks: The S&P 500 Technology sector achieved sequential monthly gains of over 10% in April (17.4%) and May (16%), marking a massive two-month gain of 36.1%.
  • Market Breadth Anomaly: A notable divergence persists between rising indexes and overall participation.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Revisions

The Q1 GDP headline figure was revised downward by 0.4 percentage points down to an annualized rate of 1.6%. The primary drags were soft inventories and downward corrections in services consumption. Conversely, non-residential AI technology and software infrastructure investments remained massive growth drivers.

Consumer Pressures & Savings Drop

A combination of stagnant hiring, moderating wage increases, and heightened inflation has restricted general household purchasing power. Real disposable personal income plummeted by 1% year-over-year in April. To fuel ongoing expenditures, consumers slashed their personal savings rate from over 5% last year down to 2.5%.

Inflation Metrics

Core prices jumped by a steep 4.4% annualized in Q1, registering the fastest non-pandemic core inflation surge since the early 1990s.

Regional Manufacturing Surveys & Corporate Pricing

  • Five Fed Composite: The regional manufacturing current conditions composite dipped slightly by 0.3 points in May but maintains a general expansionary reading of 53.8. Price metrics continue to sit in the highest historical quintiles.
  • Pricing Restrictions: Special corporate surveys indicate that while most manufacturing firms intend to raise prices in the upcoming year, they are limited from maximizing their target margins. More than 70% of companies noted that customers refuse to accept steeper price updates, fearing immediate losses in market share.
  • AI Adoption Stalling: Special surveys by the Dallas Fed highlighted a brief plateau in AI integration, though roughly two-thirds of surveyed companies operate as active users. The vast majority (84%) indicate that the tool has caused no immediate shifts to their total headcount.

Hardware, Storage, & Data Centers

An extreme imbalance between soaring AI infrastructure demand and limited manufacturing capacity has propelled data storage stocks to new heights. Producers like Micron Technology (joining the trillion-dollar market cap club), Seagate, and Western Digital have all tapped fresh multi-week highs. Compute prices continue to rise alongside rental pricing index spikes for next-generation Nvidia chips.

Private Credit Structural Shift

A private credit arrangement was engineered to fund Anthropic’s hardware acquisition cost efficiently. A financed special purpose vehicle (SPV) backed by Apollo and Blackstone will buy tensor processing units from Alphabet and lease them to Anthropic. Broadcom will act as a secondary shortfall guarantor. This underscores Anthropic’s asset-light business model, which has allowed its annualized revenue run rate to swell to $47 billion.

Week Ending 5/22/2026

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MARKET RECAP

American stock indices continued their upward momentum over the past week, driven by solid company results and ongoing excitement around artificial intelligence, even as international conflicts and climbing interest rates created some headwinds. The S&P 500 advanced approximately 0.9%, securing its eighth weekly gain in a row—the longest such run since late 2023—and finishing close to all-time highs just above 7,470. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a stronger increase of about 2.1%, reaching multiple new peaks before closing near 50,580, while the Nasdaq Composite delivered a more modest rise fueled primarily by tech and growth-oriented shares.

Market participation stayed generally constructive with selective caution, as participants weighed robust underlying business performance against potential inflationary pressures stemming from high energy costs linked to developments in the Middle East. Smaller-company stocks in the Russell 2000 delivered uneven results, whereas areas like technology, defense, and certain consumer categories led the way. Quarterly earnings largely surpassed forecasts once again, bolstering faith in business resilience, although some late-week selling emerged in semiconductor names and other momentum plays amid position trimming.
Bond markets came under selling pressure with Treasury yields moving higher due to reduced hopes for near-term Federal Reserve easing and ongoing worries about inflation, leaving the 10-year note yield around 4.55%. Energy commodities held firm overall, with WTI crude trading near $96 per barrel on supply disruption fears before moderating slightly on diplomatic optimism, while gold prices moved tentatively in response to elevated yields and a steadier dollar. Digital assets faced additional downward pressure amid the broader risk-averse tone in speculative corners.
Markets now head into a shortened trading week due to the Memorial Day holiday, with key items on the agenda including fresh inflation readings such as core PCE, updated GDP figures, consumer sentiment surveys, and earnings updates from companies like Salesforce and Costco. Positive signals on U.S.-Iran negotiations could help moderate energy costs, yet lighter volumes and continued monitoring of monetary policy may lead to sharper price swings. The prevailing mood remains underpinned by corporate strength, although sustained higher rates and external risks call for continued prudence.

Hawkish Shift in Fed Sentiment: The Federal Reserve’s April meeting minutes signaled a growing willingness to increase interest rates if core inflation remains stubborn. Policymakers noted that returning to their 2% target could take significantly longer than expected, elevating real yields to one-year highs and further flattening the Treasury curve.

Economic Divergence: Economic data painted a mixed picture. While overall employment trends remained strong and private sector job growth accelerated, surging input prices and geopolitical headwinds caused localized layoffs and production bottlenecks across several manufacturing lines.

  • High-Profile Tech Supply: Equity markets are shifting focus to an upcoming wave of mega-cap tech listings, highlighted by SpaceX filing its S-1 registration statement for a highly anticipated public offering.

  • Valuation Disconnect: Internal segment details for SpaceX reveal a sharp contrast: its core rocket launch and satellite internet branches are seeing rapid user growth and stable financials, whereas its heavily capitalized artificial intelligence and social operations consumed billions in capital expenditures against stagnant revenues.

  • Index Rebalancing Fears: Though investors expressed anxiety that massive new listings (such as SpaceX and OpenAI) might trigger heavy passive selling across older market components, strict float-adjusted weighting rules by key index providers will severely limit their initial footprint, capping broader index displacement.

  • Surging Soft Commodities: Agricultural markets broke free from a multi-year downtrend. Wheat and soybeans staged double-digit rallies due to geopolitical adjustments, while constraints in raw materials pushed global fertilizer prices higher.

  • Persistent Meat Inflation: Wholesale beef prices remained near historic, inflation-adjusted highs. Due to the aggregate U.S. cattle herd contracting to record lows, meat production constraints continue to pressure corporate downstream processors’ operating margins.

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Week Ending 5/15/2026

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MARKET RECAP

US equity markets ended the week ending May 15, 2026, with modest or flat performance after hitting records mid-week but pulling back sharply on Friday amid rising yields and hotter-than-expected inflation data. The S&P 500 closed at 7,408.50 on May 15 (up from 7,398.93 on May 8), for a weekly gain of about +0.13% (roughly +9.57 points, or around +0.1–0.21% depending on exact intra-week references). The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 49,526.17 (down from 49,609.16 the prior Friday), posting a small weekly loss of about -0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,225.14 (down from 26,247.08), ending essentially flat to slightly negative for the week.

International stocks, proxied by the Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS), faced downward pressure late in the week. VXUS closed at $83.11 on May 15 (down from around $85.43 on May 8), reflecting a weekly decline of roughly 2.7%. This mirrored broader global equity softness amid a stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields, though international markets had shown relative strength earlier in 2026.

The bond market came under pressure as Treasury yields rose notably on persistent inflation concerns. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed from around 4.38% on May 8 to approximately 4.59% by May 15 (up roughly +21 basis points), driven by hotter CPI and PPI readings, resilient jobs data, and shifting Fed expectations. This led to lower bond prices and contributed to the late-week equity selloff.

Bitcoin and gold showed mixed-to-negative results. Bitcoin traded in the $78,000–$81,000 range and closed the week modestly higher (around +0.7% in some daily snapshots, ending near $80,000–$81,000). Gold faced selling pressure and declined on the week (down roughly 1–3.5% depending on exact spot/futures tracking), closing around the $4,500–$4,650 area as higher yields and a stronger dollar weighed on the safe-haven metal.

Overall, the week featured resilient US equities early on (supported by earnings and AI themes) but gave way to volatility from macro pressures. Focus remains on inflation trends, Fed policy, and global developments heading into the next week.

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Week Ending 5/8/2026

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MARKET RECAP

  • Another up week, US stocks +2.13% and international stocks +2.96%.
  • A big reason stocks are moving up, despite the lack of a peace settlement with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz being closed, is that earnings estimates have really been shooting higher. Look at the estimates for 2026 and 2027 below.

 

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