MARKET RECAP

US equity markets ended the week ending May 15, 2026, with modest or flat performance after hitting records mid-week but pulling back sharply on Friday amid rising yields and hotter-than-expected inflation data. The S&P 500 closed at 7,408.50 on May 15 (up from 7,398.93 on May 8), for a weekly gain of about +0.13% (roughly +9.57 points, or around +0.1–0.21% depending on exact intra-week references). The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 49,526.17 (down from 49,609.16 the prior Friday), posting a small weekly loss of about -0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,225.14 (down from 26,247.08), ending essentially flat to slightly negative for the week.

International stocks, proxied by the Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS), faced downward pressure late in the week. VXUS closed at $83.11 on May 15 (down from around $85.43 on May 8), reflecting a weekly decline of roughly 2.7%. This mirrored broader global equity softness amid a stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields, though international markets had shown relative strength earlier in 2026.

The bond market came under pressure as Treasury yields rose notably on persistent inflation concerns. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed from around 4.38% on May 8 to approximately 4.59% by May 15 (up roughly +21 basis points), driven by hotter CPI and PPI readings, resilient jobs data, and shifting Fed expectations. This led to lower bond prices and contributed to the late-week equity selloff.

Bitcoin and gold showed mixed-to-negative results. Bitcoin traded in the $78,000–$81,000 range and closed the week modestly higher (around +0.7% in some daily snapshots, ending near $80,000–$81,000). Gold faced selling pressure and declined on the week (down roughly 1–3.5% depending on exact spot/futures tracking), closing around the $4,500–$4,650 area as higher yields and a stronger dollar weighed on the safe-haven metal.

Overall, the week featured resilient US equities early on (supported by earnings and AI themes) but gave way to volatility from macro pressures. Focus remains on inflation trends, Fed policy, and global developments heading into the next week.

SCOREBOARD

MARKET RECAP

• Another up week, US stocks +2.13% and international stocks +2.96%.
• A big reason stocks are moving up, despite the lack of a peace settlement with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz being closed, is that earnings estimates have really been shooting higher. Look at the estimates for 2026 and 2027 below.
• 

SCOREBOARD

SCOREBOARD

SCOREBOARD

SCOREBOARD

SCOREBOARD

SCOREBOARD

MARKET RECAP

• US stocks -0.44%, international +0.53%, bonds +0.50%.
• On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a massive, coordinated military operation against Iran, codenamed Operation Epic Fury by the U.S. and Operation Roaring Lion by Israel. The assault, announced by President Trump via social media, targeted the country’s nuclear program, ballistic missile facilities, and senior leadership.

• Global Market Divergence: American equities are lagging significantly behind international markets so far this year. While the S&P 500 has remained nearly flat with a 0.60% total return, a broad index of non-U.S. stocks has climbed 11.09% over the same period.

• Japanese Market Milestone: Japan’s TOPIX reached a new historic peak this week. Since hitting a relative low in January of last year, the index has beaten the S&P 500 by more than 28 percentage points.
  

• Mortgage Rate Relief: The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has dipped under the 6% threshold, marking the lowest level for this borrowing cost since 2022.
  
• NVIDIA Earnings Paradox: NVIDIA reported exceptional growth, specifically noting that its data center compute revenue jumped by more than 50% compared to last year. Despite these strong figures, the stock’s price actually decreased between the market open and close following the announcement—the seventh consecutive time it has followed this post-earnings pattern.

SCOREBOARD

MARKET RECAP

• US stocks +1.27%, international +1.51%, bonds +0.23%.
• The Supreme Court ruled that Trump’s imposition of tariffs under the IEEPA was illegal. This was clearly the correct decision. The law simply does not allow a President to do whatever he wants in regards to tarriffs. Trump, of course, displayed his worst tendencies and personally attacked the Justices who ruled against his tariffs; he believes they should just support him and forget the law. Most everyone agreed with the decision, and the Justices were following the law. They deserve our respect.
• The advance estimate released this past Friday showed that U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter, a significant slowdown from the 4.4% growth seen in Q3. This cooling was largely attributed to the record 43-day federal government shutdown, which analysts estimate stripped roughly one percentage point from the final growth figure.
• The FOMC minutes released this past Wednesday revealed a surprisingly hawkish shift, with several officials suggesting that interest rate hikes could return to the table if “sticky” inflation remains above the 2% target. While the committee voted 10-2 to hold rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, the “vast majority” of participants now believe labor market risks have stabilized, allowing the Fed to prioritize fighting persistent price pressures over further rate cuts.
• The U.S. and Iran are currently in a high-stakes “final countdown” toward a new round of nuclear talks scheduled for this Thursday, February 26, in Geneva. President Trump has signaled that he may decide whether to launch limited military strikes within the next 10 days if Iran does not present a substantive proposal to dilute its enriched uranium stockpile and meet “zero-enrichment” demands.

SCOREBOARD