MARKET RECAP

U.S. equities advanced for the week ended October 9, 2026, setting fresh records as defensive sectors and energy led the market higher.

Major benchmarks posted solid gains from the prior Friday close:

• S&P 500: Rose 1.15% to 7,811.54, after setting an all-time high midweek.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Gained 0.93% to finish at 51,654.95.

• Nasdaq Composite: Advanced 0.64% to close at 27,366.17.

Sector leadership rotated toward utilities, consumer staples, and energy. Conversely, semiconductor shares faced midweek headwinds after reports indicated OpenAI’s revenue growth was tracking below earlier aggressive targets. Crude oil prices remained volatile throughout the week amid lingering geopolitical friction involving Iran.

Performance across international equities, fixed income, and commodities:

• International Equities: The Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS) declined 0.71%, falling from $85.43 to $84.82.

• Fixed Income: The 10-year Treasury yield edged lower, settling near 5.24%—down 4 basis points from the prior Friday’s 5.28% and below an intra-week high near 5.31%—as fixed-income markets continued to absorb the prior week’s subdued jobs data.

• Commodities: Gold rose 1.3% to settle near $4,195 per ounce, recovering from the prior week’s close of $4,141.

• Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin retreated approximately 2.3%, closing near $82,560 compared to $84,500 the prior Friday.

The week’s economic calendar was anchored by labor stability, monetary policy signals, and consumer confidence:

• Labor Market: Initial jobless claims for the week ended October 3 came in at 197,000. This marked the fourth consecutive week below 200,000, underscoring a persistent “low-hire, low-fire” environment with minimal layoff activity.

• Federal Reserve: The release of the September FOMC meeting minutes confirmed that a majority of policymakers still favor one additional interest rate hike before year-end to ensure inflation returns to target.

• Sentiment: The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey showed readings remain subdued amid higher borrowing costs. No major monthly inflation data was released during the week.

Large-cap domestic equities demonstrated durability in the face of elevated benchmark yields, choppy energy markets, and a hawkish Fed posture. Market attention shifts directly to next Wednesday’s September CPI report and the unofficial kickoff of third-quarter earnings season led by major financial institutions.

SCOREBOARD

MARKET RECAP

U.S. stocks finished mixed for the week ended October 2, as a cooling September employment report sparked a Friday relief rally that partially offset earlier losses.

Major averages diverged as mega-cap technology buoyed the broader market:

• S&P 500: Slipped 0.27% to close at 7,722.72.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Dropped 1.26% to finish at 51,176.96.

• Nasdaq Composite: Gained 0.45% to settle at 27,190.86 after briefly touching an intraday record high.

Friday’s rebound—which saw gains of roughly 0.7% for the S&P 500, 0.5% for the Dow, and 1.2% for the Nasdaq—came as traders pared back expectations for another near-term Federal Reserve rate hike.

Across global markets and other asset classes:

• International Equities: Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS) lagged domestic equities, falling roughly 1.1% to close at $85.43.

• Fixed Income: Despite easing into the weekend following the jobs release, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 11 basis points over the week, moving from 5.17% to 5.28% due to early-week crude strength and lingering inflation concerns.

• Commodities: Gold slid 3.4% to finish near $4,141 per ounce—marking one of its sharpest weekly declines in months—pressured by elevated real yields and a firmer U.S. dollar.

• Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin traded relatively flat, finishing near $84,500 compared to approximately $84,000 the prior Friday.

The week’s primary catalyst was Friday’s September jobs report, which pointed to significant labor-market deceleration:

• Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 29,000, falling well short of the 90,000 consensus estimate.

• The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.2% from 4.1%, while prior months’ payroll additions were revised downward.

• Annual wage growth slowed to 3.0%, registering its softest pace since May 2021.

Secondary economic data presented a more balanced picture. Initial jobless claims for the week ended September 26 dipped to 197,000, matching July lows, while continuing claims fell to approximately 1.70 million. Additionally, August core PCE inflation came in cooler than expected at 3.0% year over year, reinforcing the view that the Fed has room to pause and assess incoming data.

Geopolitical developments and single-stock headlines dictated intraday price swings. Crude oil fluctuated after President Trump rejected an Iranian proposal on navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, then eased as Gulf energy flows showed signs of recovery and mediation efforts continued. On the corporate front, Nike’s cautious remarks on Chinese consumer demand weighed on retail sentiment, while strength across large-cap semiconductors, including Nvidia, propelled tech outperformance.

While signs of a cooling labor market gave equities late-week footing, elevated bond yields and persistent geopolitical tension around Persian Gulf shipping leave markets attentive ahead of upcoming inflation reports.

SCOREBOARD

MARKET RECAP

U.S. stocks finished higher for the week ended September 25, rebounding through a choppy stretch marked by crude oil volatility, climbing Treasury yields, and hopes that energy disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz might ease.

Large-cap technology and AI-related names led the rebound, helping the major averages overcome a midweek dip to close Friday with solid weekly gains:

• S&P 500: Rose 1.21% from the prior Friday to close at 7,743.41.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Added 0.28% to finish at 51,828.62.

• Nasdaq Composite: Outperformed with a 2.06% gain, settling at 27,068.72.

Market Breadth: Cap-Weighted vs. Equal-Weighted

The tech-led rally highlighted a recurring divergence in market breadth. Over the past month, the cap-weighted S&P 500 resumed its outperformance over the equal-weighted index (Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF, RSP). While RSP outpaced the broader market during late summer as participation broadened, September’s advance narrowed back toward mega-cap technology and AI leaders, causing the equal-weighted benchmark to lag the headline index over the rolling four-week stretch.

International Equities, Fixed Income, and Commodities

• International Equities: Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS) saw a more muted recovery, ticking up 0.55% to close at $86.35.

• Fixed Income: The 10-year Treasury yield rose roughly 18 basis points to finish near 5.17%–5.18%—its highest area since 2007—as hawkish Fed commentary and firm activity kept another rate hike on the table.

• Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin gained approximately 4.0%, advancing from around $80,900 on September 18 to $84,100.

• Commodities: Gold retreated under pressure from higher real yields and a firmer U.S. dollar, with COMEX futures down 2.3% to settle near $4,286 per ounce.

Economic Data & Corporate Earnings

The calendar brought no major monthly inflation or GDP releases this week, leaving markets to trade off secondary data and prior policy signals. Initial jobless claims dipped to 197,000 for the week ended September 19, signaling historically low layoff activity. Earlier releases—including August CPI (3.4% YoY), core PCE (3.3%), and the Q2 GDP estimate (1.5% annualized)—continued to underpin the Fed’s recent quarter-point rate hike to a 3.75%–4.00% target range and its hawkish guidance.

Corporate fundamentals, however, remain a strong pillar of support:

• Q2 2026 Earnings: The finalized blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 surged well above original projections, ultimately exceeding 23% year-over-year (and topping 50% on unadjusted headline EPS driven by mega-cap revisions), marking the index’s seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings expansion.

• Q3 2026 Outlook: Analysts remain uncharacteristically optimistic heading into the reporting period. Consensus estimates project Q3 year-over-year earnings growth of approximately 27% to 29%, bolstered by upward revisions in Information Technology, Energy, and Financials.

Geopolitics, Energy & Tech Catalysts

• Diesel Export Ban Rumors: Intraday energy volatility surged midweek following reports that the White House was reviewing a potential 90-day ban on U.S. diesel exports to tame pump prices. Industry groups, including the American Petroleum Institute (API), warned that restricting exports would force Gulf Coast refiners to curtail runs and exacerbate fuel shortages. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and White House officials walked back the report by Wednesday, clarifying that a blanket ban is not on the table and calming crude markets into Friday.

• Meta Muse Launch: Technology sentiment was buoyed by Meta’s rollout of Muse, its autonomous, multi-modal personal AI agent capable of executing complex end-to-end tasks, web navigation, and scheduling across desktop and mobile ecosystems. The launch reinforced investor conviction in commercial AI monetization, lifting mega-cap tech.

• Global Trade: High-level meetings between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping during U.N. week yielded limited incremental dialogue without delivering a meaningful breakthrough on structural trade disagreements.

Equities demonstrated resilience by absorbing another leg up in yields and elevated energy costs. Looking ahead, that underlying strength will be tested with the upcoming release of August PCE inflation figures, the final revision to Q2 GDP, and the September employment report.

US STOCK MARKET (VTI)

SCOREBOARD

MARKET RECAP

U.S. stocks finished a choppy week mixed after the Federal Reserve delivered its first rate increase in three years and signaled that another hike remains on the table before year-end.

Performance diverged sharply across benchmarks:

• S&P 500: Slipped 0.08% to close at 7,650.50.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Dropped 1.69% to 51,682.64, logging its third consecutive weekly decline.

• Nasdaq Composite: Rose 0.72% to 26,522.55, as resilience in semiconductors and mega-cap technology helped counterbalance broad weakness in financials and industrials.

Across other major asset classes:

• International Equities: Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS) fell 1.45%, mirroring the pressure on non-U.S. risk assets.

• Fixed Income: The 10-year Treasury yield rose from roughly 4.96% to finish near 5.00% on Friday, revisiting levels last seen in 2023 and keeping rate-sensitive sectors under pressure. The 2-year yield increased from 4.63% to 4.76%.

• Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin rebounded into the weekend, finishing near $80,900 for a gain of roughly 4.8% from the prior Friday.

• Commodities: Gold held steady, finishing virtually unchanged around $4,390 per ounce.

Labor data continued to support the central bank’s hawkish stance. Initial jobless claims fell to 196,000 for the week ended September 12—beating expectations and marking the lowest level since mid-July—while continuing claims also moved lower. Paired with the Fed’s quarter-point rate hike and firmer guidance, the figures kept market participants firmly focused on persistent inflation rather than the prospect of policy easing.

While markets absorbed the policy shift without a widespread sell-off, the pronounced divergence between technology and the broader tape—alongside a 10-year yield hovering at 5.00%—leaves sentiment guarded ahead of upcoming economic releases.

SCOREBOARD

MARKET RECAP

U.S. stocks finished lower for the holiday-shortened week ended September 11, pressured by climbing Treasury yields, sticky inflation data, and a midweek surge in crude oil.

From the prior Friday’s close through September 11, the major averages posted modest to moderate declines:

• S&P 500: Fell 0.8%, from 7,718.60 to 7,656.98.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Dropped 1.6%, from 53,414.25 to 52,573.29.

• Nasdaq Composite: Declined 0.7%, from 26,506.99 to 26,333.04.

A Friday rebound—driven by a late pullback in crude—snapped a four-session losing streak across the major benchmarks, though it was not enough to pull them out of weekly negative territory.

International and alternative asset classes followed a similar path:

• International Equities: Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS), serving as a broad proxy for non-U.S. markets, slipped roughly 1.4%, from $88.41 to $87.14.

• Fixed Income: The 10-year Treasury yield rose nearly 20 basis points, climbing from 4.78% to around 4.96%–4.97% as traders priced in higher odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at this week’s meeting.

• Commodities: Crude oil approached triple-digit levels midweek on escalating Middle East tensions before retreating on Friday. Gold softened to finish near $4,350, down from $4,430–$4,480 the prior week.

• Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin retreated approximately 3%, drifting from the high $79,000s into the low $77,000s.

Economic releases underscored persistent price pressures alongside a sturdy labor backdrop. Initial jobless claims remained contained at 206,000 for the week ended September 5, showing few signs of accelerating layoffs. Meanwhile, the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed headline prices rose 0.4% month-over-month and core CPI advanced 0.3%, reinforcing expectations that inflation will remain stubborn.

The combination of higher yields and elevated energy costs kept pressure on risk assets throughout the week. However, low unemployment claims and Friday’s late relief rally ensured that the pullback remained orderly as markets turn their focus toward the Fed’s upcoming rate decision.

SCOREBOARD

An explainer on how TIPS work.

Envision_TIPS_2046_Bond_Client_Explainer

MARKET RECAP

Barron’s wrote about the AI Capex bubble and when it might burst. Historically, major capex cycles don’t top out until spending reaches about 25% of GDP. With US GDP currently at about $30 trillion, that would mean about $7.5 trillion in capex, and that probably won’t be reached until the beginning of the next decade. Another key point is that it takes some kind of external shock, like a policy change or monetary tightening, to trigger the collapse.

SCOREBOARD

MARKET RECAP

U.S. equities declined for the week ending August 21, 2026, with the S&P 500 falling 1.43% to close at 7,674.37, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 0.85% to 53,277.01, and the Nasdaq Composite sliding 2.05% to 26,180.45 (Friday closes versus the prior Friday). The pullback snapped multi-week winning streaks for the S&P and Nasdaq amid rising longer-term Treasury yields, higher oil prices tied to Middle East/Iran tensions, and broader risk-off sentiment, though indexes rebounded on Friday.

International stocks, proxied by VXUS, finished essentially flat with a negligible gain of about 0.01% (closing near $87.71 versus roughly $87.70 the prior Friday). The 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 4 basis points over the week to around 4.74%, as concerns over government debt, inflation, and financing costs outweighed a mid-week intervention. Bitcoin surged roughly 24% to the mid-$78,000 range (from around $63,000), while gold advanced about 5.5–5.6% (Comex settling near $4,624).

Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15 fell to 206,000 from a revised 212,000, remaining at historically low levels and signaling continued labor-market resilience despite softer hiring trends in recent months. Geopolitically, ongoing U.S.-Iran frictions and related oil-supply worries added to market pressure, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s announcement of increased longer-dated bond buybacks (financed by shorter-term issuance) produced only a brief dip in yields before they rebounded, with the effort widely viewed as a temporary and ultimately unsuccessful intervention against fundamental fiscal and inflation pressures.