Week Ending 01/02/2026 | Envision Asset Management

MARKET RECAP

US stocks were up by 1.05%, for 2025, +17.10%. International stocks +1.23% and +32.35% for the year. Bonds -0.17% and +7.19% for the year.
Trump took out Venezuelan Dictator Maduro in a stunning midnight attack. He was a bad guy; the country had fallen deeper and deeper into economic despair, millions had to flee the country and lost everything; he deserved to be removed. He was given opportunities to leave on better terms, but he refused. Now, we determine whether the Administration has a plan and whether it will work.

Markets & Investor Sentiment

U.S. equity strategists broadly expect continued market gains in 2026, despite elevated valuations, driven by earnings growth expectations and anticipated rate cuts
Late-December trading volumes were thin due to holidays, amplifying short-term market moves and profit-taking
Stock Trader Almanac’s Santa Claus rally is measured by the last five-days of the trading year and it ended in the red, with a 0.87% loss. This is one of three indicators that run through the end of January that supposedly gives a signal for the upcoming year. That made it three years in a row, first time since 1950.

Markets remain focused on Fed guidance for 2026, following multiple rate cuts in late 2025
Debate continues over the pace and extent of further easing, with inflation risks still monitored closely

Global growth outlook for 2026 remains cautiously optimistic, led by the U.S. and China, though valuation risk and geopolitical uncertainty persist
China announced ~$8.9B in consumer stimulus funding for 2026 to support domestic demand (electronics, EVs, appliances)

Private equity exit activity remains constrained; record use of continuation vehicles highlights valuation gaps and slower deal flow
Analysts flag potential liquidity and pricing stress in private credit and leveraged assets entering 2026

U.S. economists highlight material economic impact expected from 2026 tax policy changes, including rate and deduction adjustments, that should help the economy.

SCOREBOARD