Author Archives: Bruce Konners

Week Ending 1/9/2026

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MARKET RECAP

  • US stocks +1.81%, international +1.69%, bonds +0.31%. The SP500 closed at an all-time high. Small stocks had a really big week, +4.6%.
  • 50,000 new jobs were added in December, less than the 70k expectation.  Manufacturing jobs fell for the 8th time in a row. The unemployment rate fell to 4.4%.
  • The ISM PMI for manufacturing fell to 47.9 from 48.2. Economists were looking for 48.3. It was the 10th month in a row projecting a contraction in manufacturing activity.
  • Economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, looking for at data from 1886 to 2017, found that tariff increases have tended to lower inflation and raise unemployment in the short run. A 1% increase in tariffs lowered inflation by 0.6%. This was due to an “aggregate demand shock.” Tariffs create economic uncertainty and a negative wealth effect (for example, falling stock prices). Because the economy is impacted negatively, unemployment rises.
  • GDPNow estimates Q4 growth at a blistering 5.1%.
  • Trump issued an executive order placing restrictions on executive pay and stock buybacks for defense contractors “until such time as they are able to produce a superior product, on time and on budget.”

SCOREBOARD

Week Ending 01/02/2026

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MARKET RECAP

  • US stocks were up by 1.05%, for 2025, +17.10%. International stocks +1.23% and +32.35% for the year. Bonds -0.17% and +7.19% for the year.
  • Trump took out Venezuelan Dictator Maduro in a stunning midnight attack. He was a bad guy; the country had fallen deeper and deeper into economic despair, millions had to flee the country and lost everything; he deserved to be removed. He was given opportunities to leave on better terms, but he refused. Now, we determine whether the Administration has a plan and whether it will work.

Markets & Investor Sentiment

  • U.S. equity strategists broadly expect continued market gains in 2026, despite elevated valuations, driven by earnings growth expectations and anticipated rate cuts
  • Late-December trading volumes were thin due to holidays, amplifying short-term market moves and profit-taking
  • Stock Trader Almanac’s Santa Claus rally is measured by the last five-days of the trading year and it ended in the red, with a 0.87% loss. This is one of three indicators that run through the end of January that supposedly gives a signal for the upcoming year. That made it three years in a row, first time since 1950.

Monetary Policy & Rates

  • Markets remain focused on Fed guidance for 2026, following multiple rate cuts in late 2025
  • Debate continues over the pace and extent of further easing, with inflation risks still monitored closely

Global Economy

  • Global growth outlook for 2026 remains cautiously optimistic, led by the U.S. and China, though valuation risk and geopolitical uncertainty persist
  • China announced ~$8.9B in consumer stimulus funding for 2026 to support domestic demand (electronics, EVs, appliances)

️ Corporate & Capital Markets

  • Private equity exit activity remains constrained; record use of continuation vehicles highlights valuation gaps and slower deal flow
  • Analysts flag potential liquidity and pricing stress in private credit and leveraged assets entering 2026

Policy & Fiscal Developments

  • U.S. economists highlight material economic impact expected from 2026 tax policy changes, including rate and deduction adjustments, that should help the economy.

⚠️ Key Risks to Watch

  • Elevated equity valuations, especially in tech and AI-linked stocks
  • Inflation re-acceleration risk impacting Fed policy trajectory
  • Geopolitical tensions and private-market valuation pressures

SCOREBOARD

Week Ending 12/19/2025

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MARKET RECAP

  • SPX +0.12%, international stocks +0.56%, bonds +0.36%.
  • CPI came in below expectations at 2.7%, but economists noted issues with the data.
  • The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest in four years. Payrolls increased by 64k after falling 105k in October, but that included 162k federal workers.
  • According to Factset, analysts are looking for 15% earnings growth in 2026, Mag 7 stocks are estimated to grow by 22.7% and the Little 493 by 12.5%.
  • Stock ownership is at an all-time high, 30% of total assets, exceeding 27% and the peak of the dotcom era.
  • The Bank of Japan increased its interest rate to the highest level in 30-years at 0.75%.

SCOREBOARD

Week Ending 11/21/2025

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MARKET RECAP

  • US stocks -1.84%, bonds +0.44%, bitcoin down about 10%.
  • Earnings estimates for the next three years are up five weeks in a row. See the chart below.
  • There were 119,000 jobs added in September, versus a 50,000 estimate, but the July and August employment numbers were cut. The unemployment rate increased to 4.4%, the highest rate in four years.
  • Nvdia reported blockbuster earnings, but that couldn’t curb fears that the AI trade is way overdone and the massive capital spending plans are going to come back to haunt companies.

EARNINGS ESTIMATES OVER TIME

SCOREBOARD

Week Ending 10/31/2025

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MARKET RECAP

  • US stocks +0.51%, international -0.43%, bonds -0.59%.

Below are highlights for the week courtesy of Perplexity’s Comet:

Financial markets from October 27 to October 31, 2025, saw a strong finish to the month, with major tech earnings, a Federal Reserve rate cut, and significant stock index gains taking center stage. Below are the key highlights for that week.wsj+2​

US Stock Market Performance

  • The S&P 500 rose by about 2% for the month, closing above 6,900 for the first time.bilello+1​

  • The Nasdaq surged 4.1% in October, with Amazon’s stellar earnings giving it an additional boost—Amazon stock jumped 9.6% on strong cloud growth and infrastructure expansion.cnbc+1​

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a small 0.1% gain on Friday, capping a sixth consecutive month of gains, a streak unseen since 2018.wsj+1​

  • Apple posted record sales with optimism for the December quarter, although its shares ended 0.4% lower after volatile trading.wsj​

  • Meanwhile, Meta Platforms and Microsoft shares fell due to concerns over increased expenditures on artificial intelligence initiatives.wsj​

  • Positive momentum was driven by continued robust performance from “Mag7” mega-cap tech stocks (Tesla, Google, Nvidia, etc.), despite job cut headlines from Amazon and Target.investrade​

Interest Rates and Central Banks

  • The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% to a 3.75%–4% range, its second straight cut this cycle, but signaled uncertainty about further reductions, causing expectations for another cut this year to fall.weforum​

  • Rate-cut optimism further fueled market gains and drove yields on Treasuries lower.cnbc+1​

International Markets

  • Japan’s Nikkei 225 soared to an all-time high, marking its largest monthly gain since 1990.wsj​

  • Most other major international markets lagged, partly due to lingering concerns about China’s property market and slow global growth.weforum​

Commodities and Crypto

  • Chevron and ExxonMobil posted lower profits but pledged to expand production; energy stocks were mixed on their respective results.finance.yahoo+1​

  • Bitcoin broke its seven-year streak of October gains, ending the month with a loss—the first time since 2018.reuters​

Notable Corporate/Economic Developments

  • Market breadth was strong, with advancers outnumbering decliners and volatility (VIX) dropping substantially as investors piled back into tech and momentum plays.investrade​

  • Bank of America reshuffled leadership in its global markets unit, and Berkshire Hathaway prepared for a leadership transition with Warren Buffett delegating future annual letters.reuters​

The final week of October 2025 was marked by optimism in US equities—especially large-cap tech—on strong earnings, easing monetary policy, and subsiding volatility, though not all sectors or global regions participated equally in the rally.cnbc+2​

  1. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-10-31-2025
  2. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/30/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
  3. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/10/us-fed-cut-rate-outlook-temper-and-other-finance-news-to-know/
  4. https://bilello.blog/2025/the-week-in-charts-10-29-25
  5. https://www.investrade.com/market-review-october-27-2025/
  6. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-climb-to-cap-winning-month-as-strong-earnings-easing-rates-fuel-amazon-tech-stocks-200208645.html
  7. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/
  8. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-30/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates
  9. https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-cautious-fed-trump-china-deal-meta-fall-alphabet-up-apple-amazon
  10. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/stock-market-news-oct-28-2025
  11. https://www.investopedia.com/dow-jones-today-10232025-11835434
  12. https://madisoninvestments.com/resources/monthly_market_update_october_2025
  13. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3bU2bKpfCQ

 

SCOREBOARD

Week Ending 10/24/2025

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MARKET RECAP

  • US stocks +1.96%, international stocks +1.01%, bonds +1.08%, bitcoin +4.2%, gold -2.95%.
  • Stocks closed at record highs on Friday, as stocks gapped higher.
  • Earnings are coming in strong, +9.2% based on 29% reporting, and 87% have beaten estimates.
  • Headline CPI was 0.3%, just below the 0.4% consensus. That was deemed sufficient to give the go-ahead for another interest rate cut at the next meeting.
  • The government is still shut down with no end in sight, but investors don’t seem to care.

US STOCKS

SCOREBOARD