Week Ending 5/27/2016

The SP500 broke higher on Tuesday and then finished strong on Friday to close at its highest closing price since 11/4/2015. It is, however, a little bit shy of its intraday high from April 20th. Overall, the SPY (SP500 ETF) was up 2.31%, the US markets (VTI) were up 2.38% and international (VXUS) advanced 2.06%. The aggregate bond index was about flat (+.08%), the US dollar moved higher (+0.39%) and oil continued its advance (+2.43%).

Equities managed to rally even though Fed Chair Janet Yellen made it clear on Friday that there is a good chance of an increase in rates in the near future. Assuming that economic data continue to show some type of growth (even if it is just above zero) and if payroll numbers continue to be strong, an increase in June or July is on the table. The federal-funds futures market is pricing in a probability of 34% for a June increase and 58% for a July increase.

Performance 5 27 2016


The SPY (SP500 ETF) broke through its declining trend line dating back to May of last year. For the long term trend to turn positive it will have to hold above this line and then push through last year’s high. On April 20th, the SPY did the same but could not hold the advance. In technical terms, this is called an “upthrust”. Market participants expect that when the price moves through a line of resistance, it will go on to higher prices from there as demand should now more easily overtake supply. When the expected demand does not show up, the price quickly falls.

The opposite happened on May 19th. On that day, the SPY fell below support. Market participants might think that the SPY was now going to head lower and the supply would swamp demand. But it turned out that the selling was declining going into that point and there was no more fuel to push the SPY lower. When that happens, that is called a “spring”. That set up the run we had last week.

SPY Chart 5 27 2016



Q1 GDP was revised up to 0.8% from 0.5%. Q2 continues to track stronger than Q1. The Atlanta Fed’s Q2 estimate hit its high, coming in a 2.90%. The NY Fed’s Nowcast increased to 2.20%. Growth now shows some modest acceleration coming off of a weak Q1.

GDP 5 27 2016

However, poor profit numbers over the last year, coupled with somewhat weak Regional Fed surveys (see the Richmond survey below) and company estimates of spending point to lower capital investment by business. There is a high correlation coefficient (0.84) between GDP growth and changes in capital investment. The slower investment will most likely hurt GDP growth going forward. The economy needs improved corporate profits to help increase capital spending.

Profit Growth Needed



The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity Index fell in May by 15 points to -1. it was the biggest drop in a decade. However, the individual activity indexes looked good pointing to modest expansion down the road.


Mortgage applications have been improving. New single family home sales exploded higher, up 16.6% month over month and 18.1% year over year. It was the biggest increase since 1992 and sales hit the highest level since January of 2008. Pending home sales hit a post-crisis high.


Jobless claims fell again, the number came in at 268k. We had a couple of weeks recently where the claims shot higher but the numbers are now back in sync with the strong reports we saw earlier in the year.


The American Association of Individual Investors bullish sentiment dropped to the lowest level in more than 10-years, coming in at 17.75%. But bearish sentiment also fell, dropping to 29.39%. The majority is now in the neutral camp at 52.86%. In the past, very low bullish sentiment readings have often been associated with positive market performance over the following year.

Barron’s Cover Story – “Why the Market Won’t Crash – Yet”

Barron’s has a good article this week on the near-term threat of a recession and a bear market. We have covered all of these topics over the last few months but this is a good review. Barron’s writes that the market is headed for another crash, but it always is headed for another crash, and it probably won’t be for a while. Market crashes are usually caused by a recession, although the decline usually begins before the recession arrives. Right now there does not appear to be a recession around the corner. Barron’s defines a market crash as a decline of 20% or more that lasts longer than 12 months.

Key reasons why there likely won’t be a crash soon:

HOUSING – A crash in housing prices preceded the last recession, but prices are below the 2007 peak. The median price today is 12% lower than in July of 2007.

No Bubble in Housing Yet

OIL – The price of oil usually jumps much higher before a recession. That is not the case today.

No Oil Price Spike

YIELD CURVE- when the curve is flat or inverted, is often signals a recession is on the way. That is also not applicable today.

Yield Curve is in Normal Range

Reasons that might signal a problem ahead:

VALUATIONS – the current market p/e is 20.3, which is greater than the July 2007 p/e of 16.3. The offset to that argument is that earnings in 2007 reflected inflated earnings from the financial sector that eventually disappeared and that earnings today are understated by the problems in the energy sector. Another difference is the 30-year treasury bond yield was 5.1% in 2007 with a 2.9% dividend yield (on equities that pay dividends). Today, the 30-year yields 2.6% and dividends are yielding 3.2% (on equities that pay dividends). It would make sense that equity prices would be much higher given the lower bond yields, thereby, resulting in a lower dividend yield. But that hasn’t happened. Equities that pay dividends have a higher yield today even though the bond yields have declined dramatically.

Payouts remain healthy

POSSIBLE GLOBAL SLOWDOWN – the international economy is barely above recession level.

TRUMP / TRADE WAR / DEFICIT- Trump raises the uncertainty level in key areas that can impact the markets including his position on trade and the deficit.


The market appears to be setting up for another shot at its high. It failed the last time around April 20th. The economy has made some progress over the last few weeks. The Q2 GDP estimates are up the last couple of weeks and the employment numbers are solid.


Week Ending 5/20/2016

Happy, or maybe, not so happy, anniversary. It was one year ago on May 21 that the SPY (ETF for the SP500) hit it’s high of $213.50. On Friday it closed at $205.49. That is a drop of 3.8%. Although adjusted for dividends, the drop is only 1.7%. So basically the market is in about in the same position as last year, with some pretty good volatility along the way to the down side.

The markets had lots of ups and downs this week but when it was all over equities did manage a gain of 0.45% on the VTI (overall US stock market) and 0.36% on the SPY.  International stocks (VXUS) were up 0.59%.

On Monday the market shot higher by almost 1% on news of Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway’s $1b investment in Apple. But that gain didn’t hold as the market reversed direction and fell 0.9% on Tuesday on fears that interest rates will rise faster than expected this year. Wednesday was an up and down day and the market finished at its midpoint, roughly in line with the previous day. Thursday the market dropped below the support line of $203.90 but managed to rally and closed above that number. And on Friday the market advanced to finish with a modest gain for the week.

SPY 5 20 2016

The US dollar also increased, up by 0.66%. The USD is now up 2.92% for the month

Performance 5 20 2016


Higher CPI numbers (see below) as well as upbeat housing and industrial production reports got the market anticipating that an interest rate rise might happen sooner (June or July) rather than later. That was confirmed on Wednesday when the Fed released their minutes from the April meeting. Inside the minutes was this quote, “Most participants judged that if incoming data were consistent with economic growth picking up in the second quarter, labor market conditions continuing to strengthen, and inflation making progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective, then it likely would be appropriate for the Committee to increase the target range for the federal funds rate in June.”

We think that the key words in this quote are that “[if] labor market conditions continue to strengthen,” that is something that has not happened since the April meeting. Labor markets have been flat at best.

Despite that, recent comments by other Fed officials have emphasized that the market was out of line with the Fed’s desire to increase rates two times this year. Markets were anticipating maybe one cut late in the year. But now the markets are finally getting the message. In the last week, the chance of a June rate hike has increased from less than 10% to over 30% now.


There has been a lot of talk about the flattening of the yield curve and if that is telling us something about a possible recession down the road. The 2-year note has increased this month by 12 basis points while the 10-year is up by only 2 basis points, meaning the spread has fallen by 10 basis points to .96 as of Friday, down from 1.21 at the end of last year. The spread is now at its narrowest point since December of 2007. The 2-year has been rising due to the possible Fed increase and the higher CPI numbers (see below), while the 10-year is being held down by negative rates overseas.

As written about in this week’s Barron’s, the spread normally has to hit zero to indicate the onset of a recession.

10 yr rate less 2 yr rate Barrons May 23 2016


Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway announced on Monday that they had taken a $1b in stake in Apple. We wrote on April 29th that Apple shares looked cheap and it looks like at least one other person noticed! The shares jumped 3.7% on the news, or $18.4b in terms of market capitalization.


After a frightening start to the year, the Chinese yuan picked up steam and rallied into late April. But since then, the yuan has been falling against the dollar to the tune of 0.6%. The People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) mandate is to promote growth, often by pumping currency into the economy. That weakens the yuan. But if the currency weakens too much, Chinese business and citizens will look to get money out of the country and into safe-havens like the United States. That has been happening for a while now, but the recent yuan rally brought some relief. If the currency continues to fall that will accelerate the process. The PBOC might be forced to step into their falling reserves to defend the currency.

But there are other consequences to a lower yuan. The big market selloff at the beginning of the year was due in large part to slowing economic growth in China coupled with the weakening yuan. The selloff was a worldwide phenomenon. As the currency falls, Chinese exports should increase and imports decrease. That means lower growth across the globe. The fear of a domino effect that impacts economies worldwide might lead to another market sell off.

The number one goal of the Chinese government is social stability and that means a steady currency. We expected a gradual decline in the value on the yuan and we will have to be on watch to its future path.



Industrial production increased by 0.7% in April. That was the biggest rise since November of 2014. Factory output improved by 0.3%. Housing started rose by 6.6% in April and building permits were up by 3.6%. Sales of homes are on the rise.

Housing Market BloombergBriefs

The Empire Manufacturing report which measures manufacturing activity in the New York region declined. The index has been up the two months prior. The Philadelphia region also reported lower readings.


A good measure of an on-coming recession is the ratio of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic indicators to the Coincident Indicators. A series of new lows might indicate that a recession is on the way. But we have not seen that yet.

LEI to CEI ratioBespoke Invest


Initial unemployment claims came in at 278k. That is an improvement over last week’s 294k. The two prior payroll reports moved in the wrong direction so it was good that we got positive payroll numbers this week.


The consumer price index put in its biggest monthly increase since February of 2013, rising by a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in April. Gas prices contributed to the increase, up by 8.1%. The increase, excluding food and energy, was up by 0.2%. Core prices were up 2.1% year over year.


The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for Q2 declined slightly from 2.8% to 2.5%. The drop was a result of (1) a lower forecast for real residential investment growth, (2) a drop in the forecast for real consumer spending growth and (2) a decline in inventory investment. However, the NY Fed number increase from 1.20% to 1.70%. If we split the difference we have a 2.1% estimate for Q2 growth.

GDP Estimates 5 20 2016


The markets have begun pricing in the possibility of an interest rate increase in June or July. That, coupled with higher inflation data, has pushed up short-term interest rates while longer-term rates have been stable, resulting in a flatter yield-curve. The Chinese yuan is declining again. Economic numbers were mixed and payroll numbers improved but overall Q2 growth is on path to be higher than Q1.



Week Ending 5/13/2016

The market was down for the third week in a row. The US markets fell about 1/2% and the international markets were down almost 1%. The short-term momentum that has pushed the markets higher since February seems to be fading at this point. While the weekly trend has remained negative throughout this recent rally, the daily trend is now beginning to turn negative.

Spy 5 13 2016 Weekly Chart

The SPY closed at 204.76, it has bounced off resistance of about 203.90 a couple of times already, so that line is likely to be tested again soon.

SPY Daily Chart 5 13 2016

The US dollar increased for the second week in a row and that hurt the large caps. A higher US dollar makes our exports less competitive and hurts overseas earnings as they are translated back into dollars. Crude oil was up on the week 3.47%.

performance 5 13 2016


There has been a general consensus over the past week that the odds of a Trump Presidency have increased. Not to say that he is the odds on favorite, but sentiment has moved in his direction. Forgetting whether one believes that Trump will be great for the economy or terrible, there is no arguing that what policies he chooses to pursue and to what degree make his possible presidency much higher on the scale of uncertainty. And therein presents a problem for the markets and the economy. Uncertainty often means lower and/or volatile equity markets. Larry Summers went so far as to compare the US to an emerging market at the SALT Conference in Las Vegas, saying “political risk driving huge economic risk is something I always thought you talked about in connection with emerging markets. Now I think it is something you talk about in respect to the U.S.”


It was a tough week to be a retailer. Macy’s, JC Penny, Kohl’s and Nordstrom all had disappointing Q1 earnings and/or a disappointing outlook. Amazon is taking a bigger and bigger piece of the retail market and they seem to have really cut into the retailers over the past several months. According to the April retail sales report, online shopping was up 8.1% over the last four months.

In terms of the overall economy, the retail sales report did have good news, April retail sales were up 1.3% versus a 0.8% consensus. That was a big beat and was the main factor in pushing the GDPNow estimate for Q2 growth higher for the week.


The retail sales report helped move the Atlanta Fed’s Q2 GDP estimate higher. GDPNow increased by 1.10% for the week to 2.80%. The NY Fed’s Nowcast also increased, but not by as much, to 1.20%. Both reports show improved growth over Q1.

Economy 5 13 2016


However, disappointing employment numbers would make one think that growth was declining, not increasing. Initial jobless claims came in much higher for the second week in a row. The number came in at 294k, up 20k from the prior week. It was the biggest gain in two years. We are closing in on the 300k level. The economy has held below that since March of 2015. Jobless claims are now up 46k since the low of 248k three weeks ago. Bespoke Investments ran an analysis showing that there have been 77 such spikes of 45k or more in initial jobless claims since 1967, including 5 in this current expansion. There is about a 50/50 split if an increase like this is indicative of a recession or continued expansion.

Initial Jobless Claims Spikes Greater than 45kbespokepremium.com

It might be that employment is going to start catching up with falling corporate profits. Profits have been down for more than a year now, but employment has held steady. At some point that divergence will most likely close. Either employment will fall or profits will improve.

Divergence between Jobs and Corporate Profits

On the other hand, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report showed a 2.7% increase in the number of job openings in March to 5.757 million. Throughout this recovery, the job openings rate have been increasing faster than the hire rate, indicating mismatches between hiring needs and applicants able to fill those needs.


According to Standard and Poors, 213 companies have cut their dividends during the first four months of the year. That is the highest number since 2009 when 298 companies made cuts during the same time period. The energy sector was the main culprit.


The American Association of Individual Investors conducts a weekly survey of market sentiment. 20.4% of investors are bullish, that is the lowest reading since the week of February 11th when the market hit its low for the year. However, bearish sentiment is only 1% above the norm at 31%. In late January that number was above 40%. Most investors have now moved into the neutral camp.


91% of SP500 companies have now reported. The blended earnings decline is 7.1% versus an expected decline of 8.8% on March 31 (per FactSet). The forward p/e is 16.60. The energy sector has reported a year-over-year earnings decline of 107.20%.  Excluding the energy sectors, earnings would be down 1.80% for the SP500. Companies are still reporting that the high US dollar has negatively impacted earnings.

There is a belief out there among some that we have hit a trough in earnings and that they should begin to stabilize for a quarter or two and then begin to increase. Improved earnings would give the market reason to move higher.


At some point interest rates will go up, and bonds will go down. Investor are clamoring for safety and whatever drop of yield they can find. That has pushed 30-year municipals down to an all-time low.

Municipal Bond Yields Hit 30-Year Low

Along those same lines, governments, especially in Europe, have been borrowing long-term at ultra low interest rates. When interest rates begin to rise, even a little, holders of those bonds will face losses. Finance ministers may not view that as a problem, after all, it is the investors that will take the hit. But one of the problems is that the main investor in much of this debt are the same banks that these same governments have helped bail out. Higher interest rates in the future will hurt these same banks.

Eurozone Sovereign Overload


Short-term market momentum and positive employment reports have been helping the equity markets and the economy since February, but both of those factors appear to be fading. It seems like the market is running out of fuel, turning down towards the end of the week after a promising start on Monday and Tuesday. The market is now down about 2.5% from its recent peak. Overall retail sales were a positive surprise, and that actually pushed GDP estimates for Q2 higher. Disappointing employment numbers are something to watch and are of concern. The economy cannot seem to get any serious positive traction. That coupled with the uninspiring choices for President have not helped.

Week Ending 5/6/2016

Week Ending 5/6/2016

The market was down slightly for the week, the overall US market as measured by the VTI fell 0.50%, international markets as measured by the VXUS were down 2.38% and the aggregate bond index as measured by the AGG rose 0.26%. The US dollar also rallied by 1.29% and crude oil fell by 2.74%.

performance 5 6 2016

The market has now fallen two weeks in a row but the move has been small. The SP500 (SPY) is only off 2.1% from its recent high of 210.10 on April 20th. On Friday, the market opened almost at the low of the day, pushed against a resistance line (see the yellow line below) and bounced right off it and finished pennies off its high from the day. So even in the face of falling prices over the last couple of week, the equity market has shown pretty good strength.

SPY Daily Chart 5 6 2016

REITs had a big week. The VNQ rallied 4.6% and broke out to a new high. In the face of a slow growth economy, low interest rates, and stable to increase real estate values, higher yielding REITs have become more attractive.

VNQ 5 6 2016


Q2 GDP estimates remain in line with last week, GDPNow (Atlanta Fed) drop by 10 basis points. to 1.70%. The NowCast (NYFed) remained at 0.80%.

GDP Estimates 5 6 2016


The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Index for manufacturing fell to 50.8 from 51.5 in April, but remained about the breakeven level of 50 indicating expansion for the second straight month. It was a disappointing number but at least it was still positive. The export index, helped by a lower dollar, rose to its highest level since November of 2014.

Global PMI fell to 50.1 from 50.5. This is just 0.1 point above the 39-month low from February of this year. Employment fell for the third month in a row. Inventories did decline at the fast pace since July of 2013. That means if sales picks up, it would translate into new manufacturing, as opposed to working down existing inventory.

Japan fell to 48.2, probably impacted by the higher yen. The UK PMI dropped to 49.2, dropping into contraction territory for the first time in three years. Uncertainty from the Brexit vote gets the blame there.  China fell to 49.4, but that is still up from the September low. Brazil was a disaster, coming in at 42.6. The Eurozone did increase by 0.1 to 51.7. Other positive countries were Australia, Mexico, Vietnam and emerging Europe.

Overall, 60% of individual countries are still in expansion territory, that is down from 69% last month. The global economy appears to be just keeping its head barely above water and we are still on a global recession watch.

PMI for April 2016


The numbers were better on the services side. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index rose to 55.7, up from 54.5. That is the highest level this year. So while manufacturing was a disappointment, the service number was better than expected.

Combined, the ISM Composite Index rose to 55.1. That also is the highest reading of the year.


Employment statistics have been the linchpin of the US economy in recent months. But this week the numbers were not as strong as we have become accustomed to. Jobless claims came in at 274k, which was the highest reading in five weeks. Relatively speaking 274k is a very good number, just not as good as the very low numbers we have been seeing. The unemployment rate remains at 5%. Only 160k new jobs were created. That number was a disappointment and lower than the 200k consensus. It is going to be hard for the economy to keep creating 200k+ jobs per month in a slow growth economy.

In our quarterly webinar we cited 5 factors that often are leading indicators for a recession, two of them are rising jobless claims and declining employment. While rising claims were up and the change in newly created jobs was down, these two numbers are are not yet indicative of a trend.

Initial Claims 4-Week Moving Average 5 8 2016 Total Nonfarm Payrolls April 2016

The weaker than expected employment numbers likely diminished the chances of a June rate increase by the Fed.


Week Ending 4/29/2016

The market finally retreated. Although it was slight. The overall US market as measured by the VTI dropped 1.21%, the SP500 as measured by the SPY was down 1.26% and international x-us was down 1.27%. Bonds advanced 0.33% and the US dollar fell 2.04%.

For the month, the US market was up 0.66%, the SPY was up 0.39% and international x-US was up 2.16%. Some of the tech stocks really got hurt in April, AAPL -14.0%, GOOGL -7.2% and MSFT -9.7%. AAPL now sells at less than 12x 2016 earnings, yields 2.43% and has a free cash flow yield of about 10%. Compare that to a 20-year treasury which yields 2.26%! But nobody wants AAPL right now and the stock has fallen hard.

Value, small caps and resource stocks outperformed in April. Treasuries were mostly down but the corporate investment grade and high yield markets had nice rallies. The aggregate bond index was up 0.25%. Treasury rates were up about 5 basis points across the curve. The dollar was down and oil had a major rally, up 19.77%.

The correlation between oil and stocks did not hold this week. While stocks fell oil moved ahead by 5.15%. As we move away from $40 per barrel oil and get closer to $50 that correlation will likely begin to decline.
Year to date the US markets are up 1.64%. Bonds have been the bigger winner, up 3.30%.

performance 4 29 2016


While earnings overall are down year over year, the reported numbers versus expectations have been better than expected. 62% of SP500 companies have reported earnings per FactSet. 74% have beaten their mean earnings estimate and 55% have beaten their sales estimate. So far, earnings are down 7.6%. The estimated earnings decline was about 9% when Q1 ended.

Normally, earnings estimates for a quarter decline during the first few weeks as analysts are often a little too optimistic going in, and need to readjust as the quarter begins. For this quarter (Q2), analysts have lowered earnings estimates for the SP500 companies by 1.8%. Over the last year, earnings estimates were dropped by an average of 2.8% during the first month of the quarter. Looking back over the last five years, analysts have dropped earnings estimates by 2.2% during the first month and over the last 10 years the average was a 2.3% drop. So the current estimated decline of 1.8% for Q2 is better than the recent averages.

Likewise, the spread between companies raising guidance versus lowering guidance has been almost flat.  So while we would not say that earnings are going to be really good going forward, they may be better than what analysts estimate.

Spread on Forward Guidance - Bespokepremium 4 29 2016


The Bureau of Economic Analysis released their advance estimate of Q1 GDP showing slow growth of 0.50%. It was the lowest number since Q1 of 2014, when the number was negative. In past years, Q1 has been the slowest quarter of the year, if the pattern holds, growth will accelerate from here.
Private nonresidential fixed investment, or capex, fell at a 5.9% annual rate. As would be expected, investment in energy exploration was the main culprit, plunging by 86%. With oil prices on the rebound, investment in the energy sector should begin to stabilize.

Inventory to sales continues to rise. That would be a negative sign for the economy. At some point inventory levels will revert to the mean and to do so, there would likely be a drop in purchasing for a while, slowing the economy.

Autos and housing are not contributing to the economy at their historical levels. The strong job market has helped employees. Their compensation as a percentage of nominal GDP has been rising.

Transfer payments from the government to households continues to rise. Healthcare costs (Medicare and Medicaid, marked in light and dark blue below) are driving most of the increase. Transfer payments are now around 15% of GDP compared to about 4% in 1947.

Transfer Payments Bespoke Premium 4 29 2016

All of this adds up to not much, in terms of growth, which is why GDP is estimated to have grown at only 0.5%.

For Q2, current estimates show a small improvement over Q1. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow currently shows growth of 1.80% and the NY Fed Nowcast currently forecasts growth 0.80% for the second quarter.


The initial jobless claims number came in a 257k. Up by 9k from last week but still very low. The job market has been the one very big bright spot in the economy. The four-week moving average is at its lowest level since 1973.


Pending home sales were up by 1.4% in March, higher than the consensus estimate of 0.5%. It would be a big positive if housing can begin approaching historical norms.


The Fed released a statement on Wednesday. They gave no indication of when they will raise rates again and the statement was noticeable in that it did not emphasize international risks as much as previous statements. The Fed is probably looking at 1 to 2 hikes this year, with a slight chance for a June increase, although we would need some firming economic numbers and stable financial markets. The Brexit vote is just after the June Fed meeting so the Fed would also have to be confident that the “no exit” choice would win to raise rates in June.

One reason why growth might be slowing is that the Fed’s balance sheet, as a percent of GDP has been declining since the end of 2014. The Fed has maintained its assets at about $4.5 trillion during that time, but as GDP has grown, the percentage to GDP has declined. The net effect is the Fed’s balance sheet has less of a stimulating effect on the economy than a couple of years back.

Feds Balance Sheet as Percentage of GDP - Bloomberg


While the US is dragging along almost at stall speed, growth in Europe is beginning to accelerate. GDP in the Eurozone grew at an annualized pace of 2.2% in the first quarter, increasing at a rate of 2x the previous quarter. Inflation adjusted GDP has finally surpassed the 2008 level. However, economists are only expecting growth of 1.6% for the entire year.

Europe Comes Back Like It's 2008



We did get a small pullback in the market last week. After the big run up we had expected such and there might more on the way. The market needs to put in a higher low and then resume its run and set new highs to turn the weekly trend positive. Earnings are bad but not as bad as analysts thought they would be. Estimates for Q2 are not falling as much as they normally do at this time of year, hopefully a positive sign. The economy really dragged in the first quarter but has avoided recession and economic growth around the world is slowly improving.
Watch our Market Outlook: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORQGdDtTpTQ