HIGHLIGHTS

• S&P 500 +0.87%
• Despite a rally this year, less than 1/3 of the stocks in the S&P 500 have outperformed the index.
• Apple and Microsoft make up 14% of the S&P 500.
• The S&P trades at 18x next year’s earnings versus a 16.9x five-year average (for the period ending 2019), and interest rates are much higher now.
• The average recession drops EPS by 31%.
• The debt ceiling crisis is still out there and will have to be dealt with soon.

SCOREBOARD

SCOREBOARD

MARKET RECAP

• S&P 500 -0.1% for the week
• Most of the advance this year is due to the largest 20 stocks in the S&P 500.
• The equity risk premium, currently 1.59%, is the lowest since October of 2007.
• CAPE is at 29, in the 90th percentile.
• OPEC announced a surprise cut in oil production; energy moved up in price.
• US bank lending fell in the last two weeks of March by the most on record.

SCOREBOARD

MARKET RECAP

A big week for stocks as US markets rallied by 3.64% and international stocks by 3.37%. Bonds were off by 0.52%.

A winning quarter wrapped up on Friday, with US markets up by 7.2% and the Nasdaq up by 17%. Bonds also rallied for the quarter, up by 3.23%, as the 10-year yield fell from 3.826% to 3.491%. The much-feared recession has yet to arrive, and the labor market is still strong. The Fed has continued to raise rates, but that did not stop a winning quarter.  Estimated earnings for the quarter just ended are expected to drop by 4.6%, following a 3.2% decline in Q4. But investors seem to be looking past all of that.

For all the predictions by the “experts” that the market will turn down with all of the bad news, stocks have taken a near-term turn upwards and are back up the declining trend line.

SCOREBOARD

March 2023: Rebounding Spirits Amidst Banking Jitters

Following February’s pullback, March saw a rebound in sentiment for financial markets, albeit amidst new concerns. Here’s a breakdown of the key highlights:

Equity Market Bounce:

• Major indices recovered, defying some negative forecasts.
• The S&P 500 climbed 4.5%, the Dow Jones 3.4%, and the Nasdaq a staggering 17.05%.
• Growth stocks continued their outperformance, leading the charge in the recovery.

Fading Concerns Over Inflation:

• The CPI fell for the first time since October 2021, fueling hopes for peak inflation.
• This dovish sentiment led to a decline in long-term bond yields.

Central Bank Tightrope Walk:

• The Federal Reserve maintained its 0.25% rate hike pace, while acknowledging the potential for slower economic growth.
• Global central banks like the Bank of England and the European Central Bank also began a gradual process of policy tightening.

Banking Sector Stress:

• The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, a key financial institution, rattled the banking sector and created short-term volatility.
• However, government interventions and broader market resilience minimized the damage.

International Markets Uptick:

• Developed markets like the MSCI EAFE recovered 4.2%, while emerging markets, particularly China, also bounced back with a 2.3% gain.

Other Notable Events:

• China set a lower GDP growth target of “around 5%” for 2023, indicating concerns about its economic slowdown.
• The ongoing war in Ukraine continued to contribute to supply chain disruptions and energy price volatility.

Overall, March was a month of renewed optimism for financial markets. The fading threat of inflation and cautious central bank actions allowed for a rally, despite the temporary shock of the banking crisis. However, uncertainty remains regarding the sustainability of the uptrend, with factors like geopolitics and potential economic headwinds playing a role.