Week Ending 5/23/2025

MARKET RECAP

  • US stocks fell by 2.58%, international stocks advanced by 0.69%, and bonds declined by 0.43%.
  • The 30-year bond yield broke 5%, closing at 5.04%. The 10-year is at 4.51%, that is up 28 basis points in May.
  • The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow projects 2.4% growth in Q2.
  • Trump turned the positive momentum of the previous week on its head on Monday when he threatened a 50% tariff on all EU goods. He doesn’t learn.Trump should be working towards zero percent tariffs on both sides.
  • The House passed the “Big Beautiful [budget] Bill,” which will add an estimated $3 trillion to the deficit, leading to an increase in yields. Need less new tax breaks have been added, such as no tax on tips (cost $125 billion over the decade), no tax on overtime ($62.5 billion), car-loan interest deduction ($57 billion), tax relief for seniors ($25 billion), increased state and local tax deduction cap, and others.
  • Trump is passing up very rare opportunity to actually help get our fiscal house in order. He controls both the Senate and the House, and they do whatever he says. He should have implemented real spending cuts, and small tax increases (like a percent or so).
  • Senator Ron Johnson plans to make a major effort to stop the bill.

SCOREBOARD

Week Ending 5/16/2025

MARKET RECAP

  • SPX +5.27%, Russell 2000 +4.46%, Nasdaq +7.15%.
  • SPX is now 3% off its record high.
  • Stocks have staged a dramatic recovery since the April 8th low. Trump has backed off the dramatic tariff increases over the last few weeks, but he is still insisting on tariffs of at least 10% (at least so far) at best for some nations and more for others. While not nearly as bad as it could be, it is still bad for the economy. And the damage to the American brand make take a long time to recover, if it even does.
  • The consensus is that Scott Bessent takes precedence over Peter Navarro. That is a good thing!
  • China and the US agreed to reduce tariffs. The US tariff rate on Chinese imports is now 30%, and China will charge the US 10%. The US rate includes a 20% penalty for fetanyl.
  • Walmart warned they would increase prices and Trump then laid into them. What does Trump expect? If he doesn’t want Walmart to increase prices then don’t set tariffs.Yes, tariffs lead to price increases!
  • Moody’s downgraded US debt.

 

SPX