MARKET RECAP

• US stocks +1.78%, international stocks +1.09%, bonds +0.23%.
• Stocks are back to within about 1% of highs while consumer confidence is falling. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is at a six-month low.
• Earnings estimates have ramped up in the last few weeks; see the chart below.
• GDPNow estimates Q2 growth to be at a strong 4.20%.
• Talk of a recession seems to be receding on earnings calls. Meanwhile, the “10% recession rule” followed by Piper Sandler was triggered last week. The rule is triggered when the three-month moving average of people unemployed rises 10% compared with its level from the prior year.
• Social Security is forecast to run out of funds in 2033, and benefits will drop by 21%, assuming no fix.

EARNING ESTIMATES OVER TIME

SCOREBOARD

MARKET RECAP

• Last week, the Treasury auctioned off $213 billion in bonds. According to Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, that amount is greater than the entire deficit for fiscal y ear 2007 ($160.7 billion). And our leaders continue to ignore this problem.

SCOREBOARD