PERFORMANCE

The market continued its relentless pursuit higher, making it 84 trading days without a decline of 1% or more. This despite all the craziness in Washington and around the world. Favorable earnings news, improving global economic data and the hint that a “phenomenal” tax plan is a couple of weeks away are what the market is concentrating on.

US equity markets were up about 1% and international equities less than 1/2 of that. The dollar was up 0.65% and crude was flat.

TAX PLAN

We do not know the details of Trump’s corporate tax plan, but some form of a border tax is a possibility. A border tax would likely negatively impact SP500 earnings, since many of those companies rely on imports. The flip side is that the corporate tax cuts would probably offset the lost income from the border tax. However, the law of unintended consequences could come into play as US companies have built up intricate supply networks that count on the free flows of good into this country without a tax or tariff.

There is also talk of eliminating interest deductibility which would hit earnings.

We do need corporate tax reform but as they say, the devil is in the details.

FOREIGN INVESTORS BACKING AWAY FROM TREASURIES

Foreign investors have been reducing their exposure to US treasuries due to a combination of higher US deficits, more inflation, higher interest rates down the road and the Trump effect. For the United States, less foreign ownership of treasuries, in and of itself, will push interest rates higher.

CHINA

China’s foreign currency reserves have dropped to just under $3 trillion from $4 trillion in 2014. China has been using their reserves to try to keep the value of yuan from falling even faster than it has. Worried about more depreciation, Chinese citizens have been trying to move currency overseas, which of course leads to even further depreciation. There is always the possibility that at some point the Chinese government will halt their efforts to prop up the yuan and let it find its natural level. A big drop in the yuan could lead to a market selloff as it did at the beginning of 2016.

One positive note in relation to China is that Trump has backed off on some of his saber-rattling in the last week and even wrote a letter to the Chinese leader promising a “constructive relationship.”

GDP

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Q1 estimate fell by 0.70% to 2.70%, but the NY Fed’s Nowcast increased their Q1 estimate to 3.10% on positive news on imports and exports.

Jobless Claims

Initial claims for unemployment continue to fall hitting the lowest level since November of 1973 at 234k.

PERFORMANCE

The market made a u-turn mid-week, falling by slightly on Monday and Tuesday and then finishing in rally mode. Overall, US equities were up slightly, +0.22%. Trump’s announcement on Friday that he wanted to cut financial regulations helped the big banks surge in price, and that got equities into the black for the week.

International equities continued to outperform, +0.50%. The US dollar was down and crude was up.

EARNINGS ESTIMATES

Earnings estimates for Q1 dropped by 1.5% during January, from $30.57 to $30.10. That compares to an average decline of 2.3% over the last five years for the first month of a quarter.

GDP

The GDPNow came out with their first estimate for Q1 growth at 2.3% on January 30th, and it was quickly bumped up to 3.4% on February 1 after positive reports from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau. The NowCast forecasts Q1 growth at 2.90%. For Q4, the final GDPNow forecast was for 2.9% growth and the Nowcast  was 2.10%.

INTEREST RATES

Midweek, the Fed announced in would not raise interest rates at this time. Rates were flat for the week.

JOBS/INFLATION

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 227k. Private payroll was up 237k and government payroll declined by 10k. It was the biggest gain in six months. But the two previous months were revised down by 39k. The unemployment rate increased by 0.1% to 4.8%, but that was due to an increase in the labor force participation rate, which bumped up to 62.9% from 62.7%.  And year over year increase in hourly earnings advanced by 2.5%, down from 2.8% in the prior report.

The slight uptick in the unemployment rate and the subdued increase in hourly earnings gives the Fed some more breathing room on increasing rates, for now. But as the chart below shows, manufacturing input prices are rising around the world and that is likely to show up in prices down the road.

Initial claims for unemployment declined by 14k to 246k.

GLOBAL ECONOMY CONTINUES TO IMPROVE

The latest PMI data shows that the global economy continues to improve. The Global PMI reading stands at 52.7, the highest level since February 2014. 85% of individual countries have scores above 50, indicating expansion, the highest level since March of 2014. New orders are increasing, indicating the chance for more growth ahead.

RETAIL

Retailers and those that sell through retailers are a weak spot that might start rippling through the economy. This past week, Under Armour shares dropped 29% on slower sales growth, Ralph Lauren fell 13% and Deckers Outdoor plunged 21% on an earnings miss.

It was a week for the record books as the Dow shot through the 20,000 barrier on Wednesday and closed at 20,094. Boeing jumped by 5.1% on strong earnings and that was enough to push the Dow through.

Overall, US equity markets were up about 1%, international +1.37%, bonds and the dollar were roughly flat and crude advanced by 1.43%

Surprisingly, the market has ignored what would seem like negative news. In the just the first week of the Trump presidency, he has gotten into a war of words with Mexico that might turn into a trade battle/war, there is talk of a 20% border tax/tariff, barred citizens from certain Muslim-majority countries from entering the country and dropped out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and those are just the headlines. But the market is staying focused on anticipated stronger growth ahead.

GDP

The first estimate from the Commerce Department on real GDP was +1.9% in Q4. Trump is looking to double the 1.9% rate. The 1.9% estimate is much lower than the GDPNow forecast of 2.90% but in line with the NY Fed’s Nowcast estimate of 2.10%.

For all of 2016, GDP was up 1.6%, that is the lowest number since 2011 and down from 2.6% in 2015. Q4 was highlighted by strong consumer spending, an increase in business investment, home construction and government spending. Net exports subtracted 1.7% from the growth rate.

The labor market remains tight. Jobless claims came in at 259k. The four-week average was $245.5k, the lowest number since November of 1973.

Below are the performance stats for the week ending 1/20/2017. Look for our quarterly webinar , which will cover a lot of topics, in the next week.

PERFORMANCE

US markets were pretty much flat for the week. The more Trump speaks, the more his post-election market friendly messages get muddled, slowing market momentum. International markets outperformed the US for second straight week. Interest rates were down just slightly, helping bonds rise. The USD fell by 1.02% and oil dropped by 3%.

GDP

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for Q4 growth dropped by 0.1% to 2.8%. The forecast for Q4 personal consumptions expenditures fell from 2.6% to 2.5%. The NY Fed’s NowCast forecast stayed the same for Q4, at 1.9%. But the 2017 Q1 forecast rose by 20 basis points to 2.1% on a good retail sales report.

EARNINGS

Q4 earnings should be up year over year. At the end of the year, Q4 earnings were projected to increase by 3.0%. But normally, actual earnings come in higher than the quarter end projection. That would make it two straight quarters of improving earnings.

PERFORMANCE

The US equity markets rallied about 1.65%. International markets fared better, +2.38%. Bonds rallied by 0.21% as the yield curve moved slightly flatter. The dollar fell by 0.14% and oil was up by 0.50%.

The main focus was on the Dow as it made another push to break through 20,000. Of course, 20,000 is just a number and has no real economic meaning, but it serves as a milestone that makes news. And to traders, the number must have significance because they have been selling every time the Dow gets close. The Dow came within 0.37 of the mark on Friday, about as close as you can get without breaking through.

There is, however, a negative divergence between the technical indicators (see the pink declining trend lines towards the bottom of the chart below) and the higher prices of the Dow. This indicates a slowing of momentum and sometimes leads to a pullback.

EMPLOYMENT/PAYROLL

December payrolls increased by 156k. The unemployment rate increased by a tenth to 4.7% mainly due to an increase in labor force participation. Average hourly earnings reached a new cyclical high. Fed committee members will consider this as confirmation that the economy has reached full employment and that the Fed is on track for more interest rate increases.  Expect further earnings increases due to the combination of a tight labor market and minimum wage increases in 20 states beginning in January.

TRADE WAR

We consider a trade war the greatest economic threat to this bull market. When Trump was first elected, the conventional wisdom was that he would concentrate on pro-growth policies like rolling back overbearing regulations, repatriation and corporate tax reform. It was also thought he would soft-pedal on trade, and avoid a dangerous trade war. That is what set off this market rally. But the closer we get to inauguration, the more Trump tweets, and the more he makes executive appointments, the greater the threat of a real trade war. Hopefully most of this is just posture for negotiation. And Trump has plenty of smart advisers that do understand the trade war threat, but this is something to watch closely.

G-20 Growth Forecast

India is expected to lead the G20 with a forecast of 7.5% growth for 2017. China is estimated at 6.5%. Brazil and Italy make up the bottom slots at 0.80%.

PERFORMANCE

US equity markets fell by about 1%, but international markets rallied by .68% and bonds were up .62% as interest rates dropped across the curve.

GDP REVISED UP

Q3 GDP was revised up to 3.5% from 3.2%. Growth has now averaged 1.9% this year.

CONFIDENCE

More indications that confidence is up. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index hit is highest peak since July of 2007. What was interesting is that confidence was up significantly for those 55 and over but down even more for those under the age of 35. 44.7% expect stock prices to increase, the most since January of 2004.

PERFORMANCE

US markets were down 0.32%, international down 1.67% and bonds fell 0.57%. The US dollar continued its march higher, +1.27% and crude oil advanced 0.78%. The VTI (US markets) hit its high for the week on Tuesday at $117.53 and closed on Friday at $116.77, off 0.65%. That amounts to a major pullback by the standards of the last few weeks!

FED

The Fed raised interest rates for the first time in a year by 1/4 point. That increase was expected. What was not expected was that the new “dot plot” shows three hikes next year, not the two that had been anticipated. Even with that, the equity market took the news in stride and there was no major sell off. However, treasury yields did jump.

GDP

The Atlanta Fed’s GDP model remained unchanged for Q4 growth at 2.6%. However, the NY Fed’s Nowcast tumbled by 0.90% to 1.80%. The move lower was led by negative reports for capacity utilization, industrial production, and housing data. The Nowcast also came out with their initial Q1 forecast for 2017 at 1.70%. Growth estimates have been falling off. As recently as 11/25 GDPNow forecast Q4 growth at 3.6% and the Nowcast was at 2.50%.

The news is better on the international front. The percentage of individual-country manufacturing PMIs that expanded in November was 78%, the highest level since April of 2014.

SENTIMENT SURGES

More confirmation that optimism continues to surge in light of the Trump win, the National Federation of Independent Business said its small-business optimism index jumped 3.5 points to a seasonally adjusted 98.4 in November, the strongest monthly gain since April 2009. This is in line with several other sentiment type polls.

A STRONG POST-ELECTION RUN IS NOT ALWAYS GOOD NEWS

A strong post-election rally does not always portend a good year to follow. Since 1928, the market has advanced by 5% or more between election day and year-end five times (not including this year). Those years were 1928, 1952, 1960, 1980 and 2004. The market fell in 1929 by 11.91%, it fell in 1953 by 6.62% and it fell in 1981 by 9.73%. There was one big advance, +23.13%, in 1961. And the market inched up by 3% in 2005.

AND REPUBLICAN TAKEOVER OF THE WHITE HOUSE IS NOT ANY BETTER

The market also has not fared well since 1928 when a Republican has won the Presidency following a Democrat. In 1953, when Eisenhower won, the market fell 6.62%. In 1969 with Nixon, the market fell 11.36%. In 1981 with Reagan, the market fell 9.73% and in 2001 with Bush II, equities fell 13.04%.

CHINA

China is an area of concern and has the potential to set back the market on multiple fronts. Barron’s cover story this week is on the danger of a trade war set off by Trump, “If he were to make good on his most aggressive tariff threats, we could plunge into a major global recession.” Then you have the issue of the plunging Chinese currency, the controversy over Taiwan, and now the stolen drone.

CALPERS TO LOWER INVESTMENT TARGET

The California Public Employees’ Retirement Systems (CALPERS) is going to meet on Tuesday about lowering their 7.5% investment goal to 7% or 7.25%. They think a 7.5% annual return is unrealistic in this environment. Lowering the goal has real life consequences for cities and municipalities all over California and really everywhere has many other pensions funds follow the CALPERS lead. By lowering the goal, any drop in expected investment returns would have to be made up with more contributions from the employers (the municipalities) which would mean some combination of spending cuts, higher taxes, more borrowing.

Lessons from former Merrill Lynch legendary technician Bob Farrell!

1. Markets tend to return to the mean over time.
2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.
3. There are no new eras – excesses are never permanent.
4. Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.
5. The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom
6. Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve.
7. Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names.
8. Bear markets have three stages – sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend.
9. When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen.
10. Bull markets are more fun than bear markets.

Click here for the Marketwatch article.

PERFORMANCE

It was back to the races as equity markets around the world shot higher. US markets were up 3.39% and international was up 3.15%. Bonds fell again, down 0.17%. The dollar was up and oil was down.

It feels like a mad dash higher, and the sentiment is that this will continue at least through year end. The Dow, closed at 19,756, and investors consider it a given that it will hit 20,000 any day.  A lot of the Dow advance is powered by Goldman Sachs (GS). The Dow is weighted by price per share so Goldman, at $241 per share, accounts for 8.4% of the Dow. GS has rallied 32% since the election resulting in a gain of 408 points.  By contract, the next biggest contributor since the election is UnitedHealth (UNH) with 103 points.

Optimism is extremely high. CNN measures sentiment through their Fear & Greed Index and the most recent reading is “extreme greed.” This compares to one month ago, when the gauge was marked “fear.”

The Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 11.75. That is a very low reading. The last time the VIX went below 12 was for a few days between September 2 and September 7 when the SPY was about $219. That turned out to be a high and the market then sold off to $208.55 through the election.

Treasury rates were up during the week. But in a change, the long-end of the curve increased less than the short-end.

ECONOMY

For the second straight week, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model for Q4 growth declined, falling to 2.6%. Two weeks ago, growth was forecast at 3.6%, so there has been a big drop in just two weeks. A lower estimate on the contribution from inventory investment accounted for much of the change. The NY Fed’s Nowcast remained steady at 2.7%.

More signs that the Trump win is increasing confidence, the Duke University/CFO Magazine Business Outlook Survey hit its highest level since the first quarter of 2007. CFOs cited regulatory and corporate tax reform for the improved optimism.

Initial jobless claims fell to 258k.

Healthcare has been a big drag on the economy for years and it is only getting worse. The video below summarizes the negative impact on the US economy.

Click here for video of healthcare of US economy.