MARKET RECAP

• Trump is leading us to economic suicide – see our article on tariffs – https://envisionco.net/?p=5448.
• US stocks -9.13%, Nasdaq -10.02%. It was the worst week since March of 2020.
• Small caps (-25%) and the Nasdaq (-22%) are now in a bear market.
• Stocks are now trading at 19x 2025 estimates, but the estimates will come down.
• The VIX is at 45, a very high number historically.
• The 2-year yield is down 57 basis points year-to-date, at 3.68%. The 10-year has declined by the same amount and is now at 4.01%.
• In some good news, jobs increased by 228k in March, although that is a backward-looking number and was before all of the tariff craziness.
• Recession odds are dramatically increasing; JPM has a 60% probability.
• The only faint hope is that the courts rule that there is no “emergency” and Trump cannot just randomly increase tariffs, or that Congress pulls back the authority from Trump, or that this is indeed, just a negotiating ploy and the goal is to get everyone to zero percent tariff rates, but the damage will still be severe unless these policies are reversed very soon.

SPX

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