MARKET RECAP

• US stocks fell by 2.24%, while international stocks dropped by just 0.53%. Bonds were about flat, down by 0.07%.
• Economists have been lowering their growth estimates for the year. Goldman Sachs dropped their 2025 outlook to 1.7% growth from 2.4%.
• Trump doubled tariffs to 50% on Canadian steel and oil but then decided not to follow through, a pattern that has become typical over the last few weeks.
• There was some good inflation news, as CPI and core CPI increased by 0.2% month over month compared to a consensus estimate of 0.3%. Year over year, CPI was up by 2.8%, down from 3.0% in January.
• On Thursday, the SP500 fell into correction territory as Trump imposed 200% tariffs on alcohol imports from the EU. The index now trades below its 200-day moving average (see chart below).
• Gold hit a record with all of the craziness.
• Consumer sentiment is taking a big hit due to tariffs and the administration’s haphazard approach. The University of Michigan survey fell by 11% from last month and is not at the lowest level since November of 2022.
• In another warning sign of a slowing economy, airlines have been warning of lower demand.

SP500

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