US stocks were up by 1.61% while international stocks were flat. Bonds got hit hard, declining by 1.85% as the yield on the 2 and the 10-year treasury bonds were up by 33 and 34 basis points, respectively, for the week. Crude oil shot higher by 10.49%.
The recent equity rally is being helped by higher interest rates pushing down the price of bonds, and cash getting murdered by inflation, moving investors back into equities.
The aggregate bond index is down by 6.8% year-to-date as yields continue to soar and markets price in more tightening and higher rates down the road. Investors are now anticipating half point hikes at the next two Fed meetings in May and June.
There are small signs that labor participation is beginning to pick up, rising by 0.4% in the three months ending 2/28/22. 1.87 million people went back into the work force which was 3x the rate from the prior three months. There are also indications that the “quit” rate is slowing down.
Higher inflation and interest rates will slowdown economic growth, with the offset being fading worries about Covid. How that mix all plays out will determine where the economy goes from here.
Stocks had a sharp rally at the US market was up by 6.22% and international equities were up by 6.67%, the best gain since November of 2020. Oil dropped by 3%, bonds were down by 0.29%.
With this weeks rally, stocks put in a higher low and a higher high, too early to tell if this is the end of this correction, but it has to start with a series of higher lows and higher highs.
The Fed raised its fed-funds target rate by 1/4% to 0.25%-0.50%.It is the first of probably 6-7 rate increases this year, but the general consensus is the Fed is way, way behind the curve. David Rosenberg, or Rosenberg Research, says that tightening cycles have led to a recession 75% of the time, “The Fed has never tightened into such a maelstrom before – a shooting war, a pandemic, a weak and wobbly stock market, and an incredibly flat yield.” Talk about having your hands full!
The 10/2 spread is just 20 basis points. An inverted 10/2 curve has signaled a future recession every time since the 1960s. But the 10-year/3-month curve, which economists also closely follow, still has a 1.7% point differential.
US stocks fell by 2.74% while international stocks and bonds both fell by 1.71%. The yield on the 10-year treasury increased by 26 basis points to an even 2.00%.
If earnings estimates hold for 2022, probably unlikely, but if they do, the current p/e on the S&P 500 is 18.57 (see the red bar below), not much higher (about 5%) than the average since 2004 of 17.66.
The Fed’s bond buying program finally ended this past Wednesday. Incredibly, the Fed was pumping money into the economy while the economy was soaring and the government was literally pumping in trillions via fiscal stimulus. And now they wonder why there is an inflation problem.
Markets are beginning to price in a recession. According to Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, from JP Morgan’s global quantitative team, the US equity market has priced in a 50% probability of a recession and the investment grade bond market is assuming a 43% chance.
US stocks fell by 1.56% while international stocks got hammered, down by 5.84% due to the war in Ukraine. Bonds were up by 0.81%, oil skyrocketed by 26.37%.
Russia and Ukraine account for about 3% of world GDP, however, the war can induce a supply shock that will impact the global economy in a bigger way,
JP Morgan has cut its annual global GDP growth by 0.8% to 3.1% through Q4 2022,
Their inflation projection has been increased by 0.9% to 4.6%.
The US GDP growth has been cut by 0.15 to 2.7% and CPI is now forecast at 4.9%, up by 1%.
Previous spikes in oil prices have led to recessions, two in the 1970s and one in 2008. Although all were bigger in scale than the current one (at least so far).
According to Ned Davis Research, looking back at more than 50 crisis events starting with the Panic of 1907, the Dow fell an average of 7% immediately after the event but was up by 4.2%, 6%, and 9.6% in the following three weeks, nine weeks, and 18 weeks.
A strong jobs report, payrolls were up by 678,000.
Over 75% of Nasdaq stocks and 51% of S&P stocks have already declined by more than 20%.
After weeks of denying that he would invade Ukraine, Putin and the Russians did just that.
Apparently investors followed Baron Rothschild’s sage advice to “buy when there’s blood in the streets” as markets skyrocketed from 2.75% down on early Thursday morning to up 6.96% at the close on Friday.
The war is likely to lead to higher oil prices and thereby, higher inflation.
For the week US stocks were up by 0.93% while international stocks fell by 1.22%.
Prior to the rally, the NASDAQ 100 was close to a bear market, off by 18.46% on a closing basis, at the same time, Brent crude oil hit more than $100 per barrel. The Russell 2000 was off by 24% from its high.
Average home prices in major metropolitan areas rose by 18.8% for the 12-months ending in December. Home price growth is expected to slow going forward.
US stocks fell by 1.60%, international stocks by 0.37%, and bonds by 0.21%. The spread on high-yield bonds has expanded by 65 basis points year-to-date.
Russia continues to inch closer to a war with Ukraine. The Russians deny it, but all available intelligence suggests otherwise.
The 10-year treasury peaked on Tuesday at 2.05%, the highest rate since July of 2019. The rate fell to 1.92% by Friday. Some are making the case that a slowing economy and a possible war with Ukraine will cause interest rates to drop.
The debate is rising on how the Fed can get inflation under control without throwing the economy into recession. The Fed probably saved the economy from a depression when Covid hit, but went way overboard, along with Congress/Trump/Biden in pumping trillions and trillions into the system when we were well on the way to recovery. Now the Fed has to dig out of this mess.
Mortage rates are at their highest point since January of 2020.
US markets were down by 1.38%, international 0.18%, and bonds by 0.43%. Aside from the inflation news, stocks were hurt by the chance of a war between Russia and Ukraine.
Inflation hit a 40-year high of 7.5%, up from 7.0% last month.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said “I’d like to see 100 basis points in the bag by July 1.” That was enough for traders to price in a 96% chance of a 50 basis point hike in March.
Stocks were up in and up and down week, making it two weeks in a row.
Meta Platform’s (FB) fell by more than 21% on disappointing in earnings. But Alphabet and Amazon countered that with big advances. The FB drop was one-day market cap declined in history. The same can be said for the Amazon advance (except as an increase), one day later.
In Barron’s Up & Down Wall Street column, Randall Forsyth writes that Lacy Hunt, chief economist at Hoisington Management, and Garry Shilling, a well-known economist that runs his own advisory service, both go against consensus and expect bond yields to fall, not rise, mainly due to a weak economy. Shilling points out that recessions have followed 11 of the last 12 Fed tightening cycles.
In a Monmouth University poll seven in 10 Americans said :”it’s time we accept that Covid is here to say and we just need to get on with our lives.”
In an up and down week US stocks were up by 0.53% while international stocks fell by 2.38%
Personal-consumption expenditure deflator was up 4.9% in December.
Fed will raise rates in March. Powell sounded hawkish at the Fed meeting this week. A half-point increase could be on the table.
Apple and MSFT had blockbuster earnings.
The yield curve is getting flatter, the 2-10 spread is 0.61 compared to 1.069 on 12/31/21.
We might be in a more normal market environment now, since 1957 when the S&P 500 was created, the index has dropped on average about 10% once per year and 5% more than three times a year, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
The AAII Sentiment Survey has the highest bearish reading in the last year at 52.9%.
