Week Ending 3/4/2022


  • US stocks fell by 1.56% while international stocks got hammered, down by 5.84% due to the war in Ukraine. Bonds were up by 0.81%, oil skyrocketed by 26.37%.
  • Russia and Ukraine account for about 3% of world GDP, however, the war can induce a supply shock that will impact the global economy in a bigger way,
    • JP Morgan has cut its annual global GDP growth by 0.8% to 3.1% through Q4 2022,
    • Their inflation projection has been increased by 0.9% to 4.6%.
    • The US GDP growth has been cut by 0.15 to 2.7% and CPI is now forecast at 4.9%, up by 1%.
  • Previous spikes in oil prices have led to recessions, two in the 1970s and one in 2008. Although all were bigger in scale than the current one (at least so far).
  • According to Ned Davis Research, looking back at more than 50 crisis events starting with the Panic of 1907, the Dow fell an average of 7% immediately after the event but was up by 4.2%, 6%, and 9.6% in the following three weeks, nine weeks, and 18 weeks.
  • A strong jobs report, payrolls were up by 678,000.
  • Over 75% of Nasdaq stocks and 51% of S&P stocks have already declined by more than 20%.