Week Ending 5/10/2024

MARKET RECAP

  • US stocks +1.78%, international stocks +1.09%, bonds +0.23%.
  • Stocks are back to within about 1% of highs while consumer confidence is falling. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is at a six-month low.
  • Earnings estimates have ramped up in the last few weeks; see the chart below.
  • GDPNow estimates Q2 growth to be at a strong 4.20%.
  • Talk of a recession seems to be receding on earnings calls. Meanwhile, the “10% recession rule” followed by Piper Sandler was triggered last week. The rule is triggered when the three-month moving average of people unemployed rises 10% compared with its level from the prior year.
  • Social Security is forecast to run out of funds in 2033, and benefits will drop by 21%, assuming no fix.

EARNING ESTIMATES OVER TIME

SCOREBOARD