July 2023: Market Basking in Summer Sun, But Whispers of Autumn Chill the Air

July 2023 brought continued sunshine to financial markets, extending the gains of June, but whispers of cooler autumn winds started to ruffle investor confidence. Here’s a closer look at the key themes:

Equity Market Resilience:

• Major indices climbed for the fifth consecutive month, defying some earlier worries about a second-quarter earnings recession.
• The S&P 500 rose 3.2%, marking its longest sustained rally since August 2021. The Dow Jones climbed 3.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 4.05%.
• Small-cap and micro-cap stocks outperformed mega-caps, reversing the recent trend.

Earnings Beat and Economic Data Uptick:

• Corporate earnings largely beat expectations, with the average EPS surpassing forecasts by 5.7%.
• Economic data was generally positive, with stronger-than-expected GDP growth and job numbers.
• Lower inflation in several developed markets, including the US, boosted optimism for a soft landing scenario despite the Fed’s continued rate hikes.

Shifting Risk Appetite:

• Despite positive numbers, some investor groups turned cautious. Bearish institutional investors started capitulating, indicating potential waning enthusiasm for equities.
• Fixed-income markets saw a modest decline in government bonds, while corporate bonds outperformed.

Sector and Regional Differences:

• Energy was the best-performing sector, benefiting from improved demand and supply constraints.
• Consumer discretionary stocks also did well, fueled by positive economic data and earnings reports.
• Foreign developed equity markets slightly outperformed the US in July, with the MSCI EAFE leading the S&P 500. Emerging markets surged almost 6.3%, showcasing their strong comeback after previous slumps.

Other Notable Events:

• The Federal Reserve raised rates by another 25 bps, bringing the benchmark rate to 5.25-5.50%, and hinted at slowing the pace of future hikes.
• The US Treasury yield on the 10-year note briefly topped 4.0% but ended July at 3.954%.
• Geopolitical tensions remained elevated, with the war in Ukraine and US-China relations presenting uncertainties.

Overall, July 2023 was a positive month for financial markets, but the optimism was tempered by concerns about future Fed actions and potential headwinds in the second half of the year. The upcoming months will be crucial in determining whether the summer rally can hold its heat or if the whispers of autumn chills become a reality.

MARKET RECAP

It was another big week for stocks as US markets advanced by 2.71% and a super strong 3.91% outside the US. Bonds were up 1.46% as interest fell on a good inflation report.

The market appears to be broadening out, the equal-weighted S&P 500 has doubled the S&P 500 performance over the last six weeks, 6% v 3%. The S&P 500 trades at 18.9x earnings, but when you back out the seven leaders (that trade at 40x), the index trades at 15x. Meanwhile, quarterly earnings are expected to drop for the third quarter.

The market appears overbought. 83% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 20-day exponential moving average, 82% are above the 50-day, and 71% are above the 200 day. Two of the last times stocks were at similar metrics, greater than 80/80/70, led to sell-offs. From February 1, 2023, to March 13, the market fell by 6.4%. Prior to that, the other time was at the end of 2021, which turned out to be the last peak of the S&P 500. The market would fall by about 25% over the next ten months.

MARKET RECAP

MARKET RECAP

After a big June where US stocks advanced by  6.73%, stocks were flat this week, +0.01%, while international markets fell slightly, down by 0.36%. Bond took a big loss of 0.96% on higher interest rates. The yield on the 1-year treasury was up by 24 basis points.

The market no longer anticipates a drop in interest rates this year and is counting on a rate increase at the next meeting in late July. Despite falling just shy of the consensus for nonfarm payrolls, the payroll report that came out this week still reflected a solid labor market, thereby putting to rest the chance for a near-term pause in interest rate increases. Payrolls increased by 209,000; the estimate was 230,000. It was the first miss after a 14-month winning streak. The two prior months were revised down by 110,000. The workweek was up to 34.4 hours from 34.3 in May, and average hourly earnings were up by 0.4%. The unemployment rate fell to 3.6% from 3.7%.

SCOREBOARD

June 2023: A Month of Sunshine for Wall Street, With Clouds on the Horizon

June 2023 painted a more vibrant picture for financial markets than the previous months. Optimism reigned, but simmering concerns remained beneath the surface. Here’s a breakdown of the key themes:

Equity Market Rally:

• Major indices enjoyed a strong month, buoyed by better-than-expected economic data and positive earnings reports.
• The S&P 500 surged 5.8%, marking its best June performance since 2019. The Dow Jones followed suit, climbing 4.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite soared 32.32%, its strongest first-half performance in four decades.
• Small-cap and mid-cap stocks outperformed, playing catch-up with large tech companies that had dominated earlier in the year.

Economic Resilience:

• The US economy displayed surprising resilience, with GDP growth increasing to 2.0% for the first quarter.
• Consumer confidence improved, and initial jobless claims declined, fueling hopes for a continued economic recovery.
• However, worries remained about the sustainability of this growth, especially with rising interest rates and ongoing supply chain disruptions.

Central Bank Tightrope Walk:

• The Federal Reserve maintained its 0.25% rate hike pace but signaled the possibility of future increases depending on inflation data.
• This cautious approach balanced inflation control with concerns about stifling economic growth.

Sector Rotation and Commodity Recovery:

• Value stocks continued to outperform growth, with consumer discretionary leading the charge.
• Technology stocks still performed well, but the pace of their gains slowed compared to earlier months.
• Commodity prices rebounded slightly, with oil prices edging higher amid concerns about potential OPEC output cuts.

Global Market Performance:

• International markets underperformed the US, with the MSCI EAFE and MSCI EM returning less than the S&P 500.
• This highlighted the uneven global economic recovery and different monetary policy stances adopted by central banks.

Other Notable Events:

• The war in Ukraine continued to impact energy prices and disrupt supply chains.
• Geopolitical tensions between the US and China remained high, adding to market uncertainty.
• Investor focus shifted towards the upcoming mid-term elections in the US and their potential impact on economic policies.

Overall, June 2023 was a month of positive gains for financial markets, driven by improving economic data and strong corporate earnings. However, clouds of uncertainty continued to linger, fueled by concerns about inflation, rising interest rates, and geopolitical tensions. The second half of the year will be crucial in determining whether the optimism of June can persist or if underlying anxieties take hold.

SCOREBOARD 6/16/2023

MARKET RECAP

US stocks had a breakout week, up by 3.43% and moving up through resistance. Despite all the bad news out there, stocks continue to push higher.

Washington managed to make a deal to save the country from default. Of course, according to Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Maeva Cousin, it will barely make a dent in the continued disastrous trajectory of US debt, estimated to rise from 97% of GDP to 130% by 2033.

Biden signed the debt deal into law on Saturday, meaning a tidal wave of US Treasuries will come to market this week. It will be interesting to see how the market handles it.

Non-farm payrolls were up by 339,000, beating the 195,000 consensus. Bianco Research said it was the 14th consecutive monthly reading in which payrolls topped economist expectations. The prior two months were revised up by almost 100,000. The labor-force participation rate was 62.6%, the same as in May and lower than the prepandemic level of 63.3%. The average workweek fell to 34.3 hours, the lowest since April 2020.

Between the strong jobs report and the debt ceiling resolution, the Dow jumped by just over 700 points on the news, the largest one-day gain since November.

SCOREBOARD

May 2023: A Fragile Rally Under Uncertain Skies

May painted a complex picture for financial markets, offering a glimpse of potential recovery tinged with worries about the future. Here’s a breakdown of the key themes:

Global Stock Market Divergence:

• In dollar terms, global equities slipped 1.1%, highlighting a divergence in regional performance.
• The US Nasdaq Composite soared 5.93%, fueled by continued enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and strong tech earnings.
• Conversely, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 3.17%, and the S&P 500 managed a meager 0.43% gain, reflecting broader economic anxieties.
• European markets fared better, with the DAX and CAC 40 registering positive returns.

Mixed Signals on Inflation:

• April’s disinflationary trend continued, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) edging down to 4.9%.
• However, this was offset by a tenth Federal Reserve rate hike, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield up to 3.635%.
• This mixed bag of data left investors unsure about the future trajectory of inflation and Fed policy, leading to market unease.

Sector Rotation and Commodity Reversal:

• Value stocks, particularly energy and financials, outperformed growth, reflecting concerns about rising interest rates and their impact on tech-heavy sectors.
• Commodities prices tumbled, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index falling 5.64%, as recessionary fears dampened demand.
• Oil prices plunged, reflecting worries about slowing global economic growth.

Other Notable Events:

• The US debt ceiling was temporarily suspended, averting a potential fiscal crisis.
• The Bank of England and the European Central Bank began their own tightening cycles, adding to global monetary policy divergence.
• Geopolitical tensions remained high, with the war in Ukraine and increasing China-US rivalry impacting market sentiment.

Overall, May 2023 showcased a fragile rally fueled by specific sectoral trends, but overshadowed by concerns about economic uncertainty, rising interest rates, and geopolitical factors. The upcoming months will be crucial in determining whether this tentative resurgence can translate into sustained market growth or if anxieties prevail.