MARKET RECAP

• US stocks +1.26%, the S&P 500 is at a record high. International -0.14%, bonds +0.69%. Oil drops by 7.35%.
• The jobs report hammered expectations; non-farm payrolls were up by 353k versus a 185k estimate. Average hourly earnings were up by 0.6% m/m and 4.5% y/y. The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%. The only negative was a decline in the average workweek to 34.1 from 34.1, but the bad January weather gets the blame.
• Q1 growth is estimated to be 4.2% by GDPNow.
• As expected, the Fed kept interest rates steady.

GRAPH OF THE WEEK

The chart below shows how earnings estimates have progressed since 2020. The black line represents 2024, and the green line represents 2025. In both cases, you see a slight decline as time goes on. That is not unusual, as reality hits as we get closer to the actual year-end dates.

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