MARKET RECAP

• S&P 500 +1.66%.
• Fueled by AI demand for their chips, NVDA continues skyrocketing to a market capitalization of almost $2 trillion. CEO Jensen Huang said AI is hitting a “tipping point” and that “Demand is surging worldwide across companies, industries and nations.” Earnings were up eightfold.
• International markets are rallying. Japan’s Nikkei 225 hit a record high for the first time since 1989.
• Unemployment claims fall to 201k.

CHART OF THE WEEK

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MARKET RECAP

• The SPX hit a record on Monday but closed 0.4% lower for the week. US stocks -0.18%, international stocks +0.92%, bonds -0.54%.
• Higher inflation put a pause on recent market advances. CPI was up 0.3% for the month and 3.1% for the year. Core inflation was up 3.9%. The SPX fell 1.4% on the news but gained back ground as the week went on.
• PPI was up 0.7% year over year versus expectations of +0.3%.
• Bitcoin cracked the $50,000 level (see the chart below).
• Retail sales were down a seasonally adjusted 0.8% in January; economists expected an increase.
• Unemployment claims fell to 212k.
• Trump v Biden (the highlights below are from the article in this week’s Barron’s – “Trump vs Biden: Who Can Handle the Reins of a Hot Economy)
  • Debt
    • Under Biden, debt will most likely exceed 100% of GDP.
    • Trump added $8.4 trillion to the debt.
    • Biden will add about $4 trillion.
    • Neither party has shown any serious interest in reducing the debt or at least slowing its growth.
    • For now, the debt is manageable.
  • Taxes
    • Many parts of the 2017 tax cuts expire starting in 2025.
    • Marginal rates for individuals will increase.
    • Estate tax exemption will be cut in half.
    • Deduction limits for state and local taxes will change.
    • Trump will try to make those extensions permanent, which would cost $3.5 trillion, according to government agencies.
    • Trump is also thinking about corporate rate cuts.
    • To do either will probably require cuts in spending.
    • Biden will extend tax reductions for households with less than $400k in income.
    • Biden would pay for that by increasing taxes on the wealthy and those with the highest income.
    • He would increase corporate taxes, including a tax on buybacks.
    • He might cut some spending.
  • Tariffs
    • Trump’s tariff strategy from his time as President has been judged “at best a wash” or “mildly negative”, according to MIT economist David Autor.
    • Biden’s main thrust has been to prevent China from getting US technology.
    • Trump says he would increase Chinese tariffs to 60%. That would be a $300 billion tax increase to American consumers, according to Erika York of the Tax Foundation.
    • The threat might be stagflation, lower growth, higher prices.
  • Federal Reserve
    • Powell’s term ends in May 2026.
    • Biden hasn’t spoken on Powell’s reappointment, but Trump has indicated no.
    • Trump does not respect the Fed’s independence.
    • Biden does.

CHART OF THE WEEK

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MARKET RECAP

• SPX hit a new record and closed above 5,000.
• US stocks +1.52%, SPX +1.37%, Nasdaq +2.31%, R2000 +2.54%, international +0.79%, bonds -0.84%.
• SPX and Nasdaq up 14 out of the last 15 weeks.
• Earnings are coming in 6.9% higher than expectations, suggesting 9% earnings growth.

CHART OF THE WEEK

The S&P 500 breaks 5,000 and hits an all-time high.

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MARKET RECAP

• US stocks +1.26%, the S&P 500 is at a record high. International -0.14%, bonds +0.69%. Oil drops by 7.35%.
• The jobs report hammered expectations; non-farm payrolls were up by 353k versus a 185k estimate. Average hourly earnings were up by 0.6% m/m and 4.5% y/y. The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%. The only negative was a decline in the average workweek to 34.1 from 34.1, but the bad January weather gets the blame.
• Q1 growth is estimated to be 4.2% by GDPNow.
• As expected, the Fed kept interest rates steady.

GRAPH OF THE WEEK

The chart below shows how earnings estimates have progressed since 2020. The black line represents 2024, and the green line represents 2025. In both cases, you see a slight decline as time goes on. That is not unusual, as reality hits as we get closer to the actual year-end dates.

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MARKET RECAP

• US stocks +1.08%, international stocks +1.35%, bonds + 0.05%.
• The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have been up 12 of the last 13 weeks.
• According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, three key indicators give a glimpse of what the rest of the year might look like, they are the Santa Claus Rally, the First Five Days (of the year), and the January Barometer (performance for January). When all three are positive, the SPX has been up 90.3% of the time. But this year, only two of the three have been positive because the market was slightly down for the first five days. When one of the three has been negative, the SPX is up only 59.5% of the time, 25 of 42 years, with an average gain of 2.9%.
• The Fed meets this Wednesday and is expected to keep interest rates the same.
• The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index was up 0.2% for December and 2.6% year over year. The Core PCE (x-energy and x-food) was up 2.9% compared to last year.
• Preliminary GDP for Q4 came in at 3.3%, beating estimates of 2%, indicative that the economy continues strong.
• After releasing its earnings, TSLA dropped 12% and is now down 26% year-to-date.
• MSFT joins Apple with a market cap greater than $3 trillion.
• The SPX has been on fire, see the positive sloping black line on the chart below. However, the MACD technical indicator is showing a negative divergence. A possible sign of some short-term trouble ahead.
• 

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MARKET RECAP

• US stocks are up by 1.04%, the Nasdaq by 2.3%, international stocks are down by 1.33%, and bonds fall by 0.91%. The yield on the 2-year treasury increased by 25 basis points to 4.39%, and the 10-year yield increased by 19 basis points to 4.15%.
• Expectations for Feb rate cuts, in terms of starting in March and in total number for 2024, are declining.
• Bitcoin, which had a recent peak on January 11th at $49,102, is now down almost 16% to $41,347. A classic example of sell on the news, as a bunch of bitcoin spot ETFs became available last week.
• Jobless claims are closing in on historic lows again, coming in at 187,000 this past week.
• University of Michigan consumer sentiment improved by the most since 2005, up by 9.1 points to 78.8.
• The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index fell to -10.6, showing declining activity in that region.
• According to Barron’s, the Wall Street consensus is for S&P 500 earnings growth of 11% this year. But management is talking more conservatively.
• There is an estimated $8.8 trillion in money market funds. Part of the bull argument is that some of those funds will flow into equities if interest rates fall.
• Jacob Sonenshine writes in Barron’s that the earnings yield on the SPX is 5.3%, only 1.3% greater than the 4% 10-year treasury yield. Investors are optimistic and short interest is low, some of the reasons the market might be set for a correction.

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MARKET RECAP

• SP500 +1.84%.
• Inflation data came in higher than consensus,+3.4% year over year.
• Barron’s Roundtable members are looking for market returns ranging from -15 % to +12% for 2024, mainly due to high valuations. That would be less than the general market expectations in the 8-10% range.

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MARKET RECAP

US stocks were off by 2.10%, ending a nine-week winning streak. International stocks dropped by 1.57%, and bonds dropped by 1.25% as interest rates increased.

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MARKET RECAP

2023 went into the financial history books at the Friday close, with blockbuster gains for the year. The S&P 500 finished with a total return of 26.72%, foreign markets were +15.10%, and bonds were +5.04%. The US dollar declined by 2.04% and oil fell by 10.73%. Bitcoin was up by 156% as of midday on December 31st.

No one expected this; the Fed continued to raise interest rates, and the consensus was that a recession was coming. The war between Ukraine and Russia continued, and a new one broke out between Israel and Hamas. There was a banking crisis in the first half of the year, but none of that stopped the market (although there were some pullbacks during the year).

The excitement generated by artificial intelligence, falling inflation, the belief that the Fed is done hiking and that interest rate declines would be on the way in 2024,  earnings that held in there, and a strong consumer and labor market were all enough to keep the market climbing a wall of worry to dramatic gains. Even Taylor Swift helped; her record-breaking tour was like a mini-Super Bowl in every city she traveled to during the year.

As it ends, the S&P 500 closed the year at 4,769.83, just off of the all-time high set almost two years ago, on January 3, 2022, at 4,796.56. So right now the market shows a double-top. The last time the market was at this level, it didn’t work well.

The yield on the 10-year treasury started and ended at about the same place, 3.88% to close the year versus 3.83% at the end of 2022, but it was a wild ride in between. The yield fell as low as 3.30% in April and then climbed all the way to 4.98% in October before falling back to 3.88%. When interest rates began to spike, several banks failed, including Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank. These banks got caught short-handed by owing a portfolio that was heavy in long-dated bonds, which were purchased when interest rates were much lower, resulting in huge mark-to-market losses. The Fed ended the crisis by saying they wouldn’t let depositors lose money, even if it was above the FDIC limits, ending potential bank runs.

The big spike for the year in yields, which did hold, were short-term treasuries due to the Fed raising interest rates. The 3-month yield started at 4.45% and ended at 5.40%. It peaked at 5.63% in October. After years where interest rates were essentially zero, the high rates sent a tidal wave of cash into money market funds.

The consensus going into 2024, is that stocks will return 7-10%, Many still expect a recession, albeit a soft one. But as we know and especially learned in 2023, the consensus is often wrong.

Here is to a Happy New Year to everyone!

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