Week Ending 1/6/2023


  • S&P 500 +1.45%
  • Wage inflation dropped to 4.6% year over year, down from 5.1%. Long-term yields fell, and stocks went up on the news.
  • The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%.
  • ISM services fell into contractionary territory for the first time since May 2020.
  • Earnings estimates for 2023 from bottom-up strategists are for a 4.4% increase, while top-down analysts projected a 2.7% decline.
  • Fed minutes indicate they are not satisfied with the progress on inflation.
  • The consensus is that we are headed to recession; Larry Summers and Alan Greenspan both said this past week that a recession is a likely outcome.
  • It took 15 rounds of voting to elect Kevin McCarthy as the new speaker of the House. A clear indication of the dysfunction of the Republican party. The Republicans were held hostage by the crazies on the far right. They should have used the opportunity to combine with Democrats and elect a speaker more towards the center of the political spectrum to take power away from the extremes on both sides.
  • This election is not good news for negotiations on the debt limit later in the year.