INITIAL THOUGHTS

US voters stunned the world handing a huge victory to Donald Trump. SP futures fell 5.2% overnight but are now down only 1.6% (as of 7:40am). What happens from here will be a function of if Trump follows through on some of his worst rhetoric. Or, if he moderates some of his positions, hopefully with the benefit of smart advisors.

A big part of Trump’s message is to increase economic growth. The biggest danger is setting off a trade war. A President does have some unilateral power on trade. In addition, a big increase in uncertainty would not be good for the economy. Combined, this could send the economy in the wrong direction.

Trump does have some good ideas such as decreased regulation, corporate tax reform, bringing overseas earnings back to the US, better energy policy, etc.

His victory speech was a good start to heal the country and to start moving forward. For now, we give him the benefit of the doubt.