February is off to a good start so far as the market is up 3.34% this month. But that was after a disappointing January when the market fell just under 3%. We are often told that a down January means a down year. Since 1950, the SP500s median rise has been 0.6% from February to December when the market fell in January. Last year, the market was down in January and the market had a big rally the rest of the year. So last year this “wisdom” did not work. Nor did it work the two times prior when the market fell. So if you can’t rely on the January indicator you have to find some other robust market indicator, maybe like the Super Bowl indicator!

This does not mean there won’t be a correction. After all, there are some valid arguments that point to some overvaluation. It just means that a down January does not necessarily mean a down year.