MARKET RECAP

• Trump signed the “big, beautiful” bill. Right on time to the target of July 4th that he had set.
• Trump indicated that he would impose unilateral tariffs of up to 70% on August 1.
• Jobs increased by 74,000 in June, but over half of private industries cut jobs during the month. That was only the third time since April 2020 that it had happened. Businesses cited uncertainty as the reason for holding back on hires due to immigration issues and tariffs. There is also an artificial intelligence factor, hesitancy to hire if AI can do the job at some future point. The average workweek dropped by 0.1 hours to 34.2. The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%, but part of that decline was due to a workforce decrease of 130,000 people.
• CPI was only up by 0.1% in May, leaving one to wonder where the increased tariffs are going. Tariffs are currently running at approximately $400 billion annually, and aggregate profits of the S&P 500 are around $2 trillion. If the $400 billion is not being covered by higher profits, it means it will come from US companies or overseas vendors.

US STOCK MARKET (VTI)

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