MENU ITEM NO. 1: RESTORING STOCK’S BRIO

Bravo Brio Restaurant Group (BBRG) is down 20% since June to $14.71. Trades at 6x expected 2015 EBITDA versus 9+ for competition with a 6% FCF yield and an almost debt free balance sheet.

Will Slabaugh of Stephens thinks same store sales will turn positive in the second half of the year and stock can hit $18 in next year.

Analysts expect 81 cents this year and 95 cents next year. New restaurants generated 30 to 40% returns. Same store sales were down 2.8% last year. Possibly 40 to 50 new restaurants over the next five years.

$18m left in buyback plan which is about 6% of shares outstanding. Activist Red Mountain Capital owns 9.5% of its stock. Stephen Anderson of Miller Taback figures there is a 30% chance of a takeout with a $23 fair value.

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GO AWAY IN MAY; IT’S A MIDTERM-ELECTION YEAR

Based on 68 years of data, political turbulence could cause a fall in the market in Q2 and Q3. Sam Stovall of S&P Capital IQ think the market is headed for a haircut this month or next. But the market should climb back to even rather quickly.

April to September might be subpar followed by a positive returns for Q4 and Q1 and Q2 next year. Since 1970 Q2 has averaged a 2.5% decline in the SP500 during midterm election years. But Barry Ritholtz of Ritholtz Wealth Management disagrees and says this year is “skewed decidedly positive,” but don’t expect an above average gain.

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THE TRADER

DJ30 16412.71 +.55
SP500 1865.09 +.40

The movement from growth to value continued as high flyers can hit hard this week. FB down 20% on the week.

DNKN trades at 27x. New Constructs says growth has been enhanced by a series of one time events. ROC is only 8.5% and 2014 earnings might be too optimistic. Consensus is $1.82 per share but same store sales while still increasing have been growing at a slower rate over the last three years.