Week Ending 10/15/2021

MARKET RECAP

US stocks were up by 1.9%.

Surprise, inflation was up more than forecast in September, increasing by 0.4% from August and up by 5.4% year over year, the biggest increase since 2008. Supply chain issues, higher commodity prices and wages get the blame. The report confirms that the Fed will need to start tapering soon.

The combination of higher inflation and the hit the economy took from the Delta virus is weighing on economic growth. The Atlanta Fed now expects Q3 growth of only 1.2%, this is down from over 6% at the end of July. A JPM survey shows that 42% of respondents expect stagflation somewhere down the line. The good news is that Covid cases have been on the decline since August.

The copper/gold ratio hits its highest level since 2013 indicating strength in industrial demand.

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