Week Ending 2/14/2020

MARKET RECAP

Stocks finished higher,  +1.77%, and +0.82% outside the US. It was another record close for US stocks. This, despite the fact that the coronavirus continues to shut down a portion of the Chinese economy, Bernie Sanders is the current Democratic frontrunner, and equity valuations are on the high side. There seems to be a huge disconnect. Or maybe it makes sense, bonds yield almost nothing, the 30-year yield has been dropping and is now at 2.04%, not far from the all-time low of 1.94% from last August, central banks remain supportive, and many think the coronavirus is a one-quarter phenomenon. A big risk is if inflation remerges, which would change the calculus on all of the above.

BUDGET

Trump set out his long-term plan for the budget, aiming to cut budget deficits by half as a percentage of the economy by 2024 and then by another half by 2029. The budget does not forecast any recession during that time period and of course, is light on the details of the proposed spending cuts.

SCOREBOARD