PERFORMANCE

The US equity markets were up about 0.70%, international +0.28% and the bond index, +0.24%. The dollar continued to rise, +0.81% and crude oil continued to fall, -3.81%.

Treasury rates were down just slightly for 5-year maturities and up.

FED

Consensus is moving back towards a rate hike this year. The Fed Bias Index is based on a modified Taylor Rule, the US unemployment rate and the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index. The Bias Index now favors tightening. In addition, with the strengthening of financial markets and improved economic reports the Fed is going to be in a good position to hike rates, likely after the election.

ECONOMIC REPORTS

The Empire Services Business Activity Index improved by 2.2 points, as service activity grew in the NY region. But optimism about the near-term outlook declines to its lowest level in 10 months.

The Markit Flash US Manufacturing PMI was up 1.6 points in July to 52.9, it was the biggest increase since August 2014.

Housing starts were up 4.8% in June. Architecture Billings Index was down slighty by 0.5 to 52.6, but still up from last year.

The Case Freight Shipments Index was up 1.7% in June, the fifth consecutive month, but was down 4.3% year over year.  Railcar loadings have also been heading up. Positive trending railcar loadings would indicate the economy is generating momentum.

GDP

GDP estimates remained the same this week.

QUARTERLY WEBINAR

Our report this week is shorter than normal as we had our quarterly webinar this weekend. We will send around the YouTube link next week.

SUMMARY

It was a fairly quiet week in the US equity markets. Trading was in a tight range. Economic reports continue on the favorable side.