{"id":5173,"date":"2024-02-18T19:54:08","date_gmt":"2024-02-19T00:54:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/?p=5173"},"modified":"2024-02-18T19:54:08","modified_gmt":"2024-02-19T00:54:08","slug":"week-ending-2-16-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/?p=5173","title":{"rendered":"Week Ending 2\/16\/2024"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>MARKET RECAP<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The SPX hit a record on Monday but closed 0.4% lower for the week. US stocks -0.18%, international stocks +0.92%, bonds -0.54%.<\/li>\n<li>Higher inflation put a pause on recent market advances. CPI was up 0.3% for the month and 3.1% for the year. Core inflation was up 3.9%. The SPX fell 1.4% on the news but gained back ground as the week went on.<\/li>\n<li>PPI was up 0.7% year over year versus expectations of +0.3%.<\/li>\n<li>Bitcoin cracked the $50,000 level (see the chart below).<\/li>\n<li>Retail sales were down a seasonally adjusted 0.8% in January; economists expected an increase.<\/li>\n<li>Unemployment claims fell to 212k.<\/li>\n<li>Trump v Biden (the highlights below are from the article in this week&#8217;s Barron&#8217;s &#8211; &#8220;Trump vs Biden: Who Can Handle the Reins of a Hot Economy)\n<ul>\n<li>Debt\n<ul>\n<li>Under Biden, debt will most likely exceed 100% of GDP.<\/li>\n<li>Trump added $8.4 trillion to the debt.<\/li>\n<li>Biden will add about $4 trillion.<\/li>\n<li>Neither party has shown any serious interest in reducing the debt or at least slowing its growth.<\/li>\n<li>For now, the debt is manageable.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Taxes\n<ul>\n<li>Many parts of the 2017 tax cuts expire starting in 2025.<\/li>\n<li>Marginal rates for individuals will increase.<\/li>\n<li>Estate tax exemption will be cut in half.<\/li>\n<li>Deduction limits for state and local taxes will change.<\/li>\n<li>Trump will try to make those extensions permanent, which would cost $3.5 trillion, according to government agencies.<\/li>\n<li>Trump is also thinking about corporate rate cuts.<\/li>\n<li>To do either will probably require cuts in spending.<\/li>\n<li>Biden will extend tax reductions for households with less than $400k in income.<\/li>\n<li>Biden would pay for that by increasing taxes on the wealthy and those with the highest income.<\/li>\n<li>He would increase corporate taxes, including a tax on buybacks.<\/li>\n<li>He might cut some spending.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Tariffs\n<ul>\n<li>Trump&#8217;s tariff strategy from his time as President has been judged &#8220;at best a wash&#8221; or &#8220;mildly negative&#8221;, according to MIT economist David Autor.<\/li>\n<li>Biden&#8217;s main thrust has been to prevent China from getting US technology.<\/li>\n<li>Trump says he would increase Chinese tariffs to 60%. That would be a $300 billion tax increase to American consumers, according to Erika York of the Tax Foundation.<\/li>\n<li>The threat might be stagflation, lower growth, higher prices.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Federal Reserve\n<ul>\n<li>Powell&#8217;s term ends in May 2026.<\/li>\n<li>Biden hasn&#8217;t spoken on Powell&#8217;s reappointment, but Trump has indicated no.<\/li>\n<li>Trump does not respect the Fed&#8217;s independence.<\/li>\n<li>Biden does.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>CHART OF THE WEEK<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/BTC-2-18-2024.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-5178\" src=\"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/BTC-2-18-2024-300x137.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"137\" srcset=\"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/BTC-2-18-2024-300x137.png 300w, https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/BTC-2-18-2024-1024x467.png 1024w, https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/BTC-2-18-2024-768x350.png 768w, https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/BTC-2-18-2024-500x228.png 500w, https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/BTC-2-18-2024.png 1103w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>SCOREBOARD<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Scoreboard-02-16-2024.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-5179\" src=\"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Scoreboard-02-16-2024-83x300.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"83\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Scoreboard-02-16-2024-83x300.png 83w, https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Scoreboard-02-16-2024-427x1536.png 427w, https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Scoreboard-02-16-2024-569x2048.png 569w, https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Scoreboard-02-16-2024.png 573w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 83px) 100vw, 83px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>MARKET RECAP The SPX hit a record on Monday but closed 0.4% lower for the week. US stocks -0.18%, international stocks +0.92%, bonds -0.54%. Higher inflation put a pause on recent market advances. CPI was up 0.3% for the month &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/?p=5173\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1893,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5173","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5173","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1893"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5173"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5173\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5180,"href":"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5173\/revisions\/5180"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5173"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5173"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5173"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}