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<\/a><\/p>\nThe scare in banking is hurting financing. No investment-grade credit has been issued since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. In the high-yield market, the percentage of distressed issues yielding 10% or more compared to equivalent Treasuries’ increased to 10.6% from 7.8% seven trading days prior. Some economists estimate the hit to the economy would be the equivalent of raising rates by 1\/2 point to 1.5 points. Even with that, the Fed went ahead this week and raised rates by 1\/4 point.<\/p>\n
An aggregate M-Score for almost 2,000 companies shows the probability of fraud in the group is at the highest level in 40 years. The M-Score, developed by Messod Beneish from Indiana University, worked with several co-authors to measure the aggregate score. The M-Score received prominence for spotting problems with Enron three years before its collapse. It measures if companies are getting too aggressive with their accounting and\/or committing fraud. The metric often rises rapidly before a recession.<\/p>\n
All in all, the probability is increasing that a recession is coming.<\/p>\n
One big winner is gold; GLD is up by 9.5% year-to-date.<\/p>\n
SCOREBOARD<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" MARKET RECAP US stocks managed a gain for the week as the S&P 500 finished up by 1.48%. Bonds also were up as yields fell slightly. The 2-year yield fell five basis points to 3.76%. The peak on the curve … Continue reading <\/a><\/p>\n