{"id":3537,"date":"2019-11-30T10:02:12","date_gmt":"2019-11-30T15:02:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/?p=3537"},"modified":"2019-11-30T10:02:12","modified_gmt":"2019-11-30T15:02:12","slug":"week-ending-11-29-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/?p=3537","title":{"rendered":"Week Ending 11\/29\/2019"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>HIGHLIGHTS<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>US stocks increase by 1.19% for the week and 3.79% for the month.<\/li>\n<li>The GDPNow estimate for Q4 growth increased markedly higher.<\/li>\n<li>Q3 GDP growth is increased to 2.1% from 1.9%.<\/li>\n<li>The spread between the Present Situations Index and the Expectations Index might indicate an economic turning point.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>MARKET RECAP<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>US stocks moved 1.19% higher for the week while international stocks barely broke even (+0.07%) and bonds were flat. The consensus is that odds of a recession in the next year or so are declining. Q3 growth was revised higher and Q4 estimates also were increased this week on better economic news.<\/p>\n<p>For the month, US stocks were up by 3.79% and international stocks managed a 0.99% gain.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/VTI-11-29-2019.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-3545\" src=\"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/VTI-11-29-2019-300x134.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"134\" srcset=\"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/VTI-11-29-2019-300x134.png 300w, https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/VTI-11-29-2019-1024x457.png 1024w, https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/VTI-11-29-2019-768x343.png 768w, https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/VTI-11-29-2019-500x223.png 500w, https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/VTI-11-29-2019.png 1228w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>GDPNOW JUMPS HIGHER<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Atlanta Fed&#8217;s GDPNow model estimate for Q4 growth shot higher to 1.7% on the November 27th reading from 0.4% on November 19th. The 1.3% jump is about the largest we can recall in such a short period. Part of the move was due to the increase in durable goods orders, which were up by 0.6% due to higher defense spending.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q3 GDP REVISED UP<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The second estimate of real GDP growth for Q3 came in at 2.1%, up from 1.9% in the original estimate. The 2.1% growth tops the 2.0% growth in Q2.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/GDP-Growth-Q3.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-3541\" src=\"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/GDP-Growth-Q3-300x183.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"183\" srcset=\"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/GDP-Growth-Q3-300x183.png 300w, https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/GDP-Growth-Q3-768x469.png 768w, https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/GDP-Growth-Q3-492x300.png 492w, https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/GDP-Growth-Q3.png 903w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>CONSUMER CONFIDENCE<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Two components of The Conference Board&#8217;s Consumer Confidence Survey are the Present Situation Index, which measures consumers&#8217; assessment of current conditions, and the Expectations Index, which measures consumers&#8217; short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions. When the difference between the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index has peaked, it has often preceded a recession. Of course, there is no way to know if the graph below represents a peak or a short-term pause, but it does indicate a <em>possible<\/em> turning point.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Consumer-Confidence-present-situation-less-expectations.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-3538\" src=\"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Consumer-Confidence-present-situation-less-expectations-300x193.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"193\" srcset=\"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Consumer-Confidence-present-situation-less-expectations-300x193.png 300w, https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Consumer-Confidence-present-situation-less-expectations-466x300.png 466w, https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Consumer-Confidence-present-situation-less-expectations.png 741w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>SCOREBOARD<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Scoreboard-11-29-2019.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-3543\" src=\"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Scoreboard-11-29-2019-98x300.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"98\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Scoreboard-11-29-2019-98x300.png 98w, https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Scoreboard-11-29-2019-335x1024.png 335w, https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Scoreboard-11-29-2019-503x1536.png 503w, https:\/\/envisionco.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Scoreboard-11-29-2019.png 557w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 98px) 100vw, 98px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>HIGHLIGHTS US stocks increase by 1.19% for the week and 3.79% for the month. The GDPNow estimate for Q4 growth increased markedly higher. Q3 GDP growth is increased to 2.1% from 1.9%. The spread between the Present Situations Index and &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/?p=3537\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1893,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3537","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3537","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1893"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3537"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3537\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3546,"href":"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3537\/revisions\/3546"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3537"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3537"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/envisionco.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3537"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}